Edge Tracker
Whenever the model's probability beats the best market price by 5%+ expected value, a flat 1-unit paper position is opened and later settled against the real result. This measures one thing only: does model–market divergence carry signal, or does the market simply know more? No real money, no recommendations.
Ledger Summary
Entry rule: model probability × best price − 1 ≥ 5%; 1X2 model p ≥ 28%; O/U 2.5 model p ≥ 20%. At most one paper position per match (highest EV among qualifiers — no stacking 1X2 + Over). Locked at first open. Below ~200 settled positions the ROI is statistically meaningless — collect first, conclude later.
Upcoming O/U 2.5 board
No Over/Under 2.5 quotes in the latest snapshot (books may not list the 2.5 line yet, or the next odds refresh is pending).
Settled Positions
| Kickoff (UTC) | Match | Position | Model | Market | Price | Score | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 19:00 | BAY vs ARS | ✗ AWAY | 44.4% | 30.5% | 3.24 | 2-2 | -1.00 |
| 10-21 16:45 | COM vs MUN | ✓ OVER25 | 70.5% | 55.8% | 1.70 | 4-1 | +0.70 |
| 10-20 19:00 | PSG vs FCB | ✗ AWAY | 48.2% | 37.9% | 2.60 | 4-2 | -1.00 |
| 10-14 19:00 | MCI vs PSG | ✗ HOME | 61.4% | 38.5% | 2.50 | 2-4 | -1.00 |
| 10-14 19:00 | ROM vs RMA | ✗ HOME | 40.0% | 23.1% | 4.32 | 3-4 | -1.00 |
| 10-13 19:00 | ATM vs MUN | ✗ AWAY | 39.9% | 31.4% | 3.11 | 2-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-09 19:00 | LIV vs ATM | ✓ OVER25 | 76.8% | 55.8% | 1.74 | 2-1 | +0.74 |
| 09-09 19:00 | NAP vs ARS | ✗ OVER25 | 67.4% | 50.3% | 1.95 | 0-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-08 19:00 | RMA vs INT | ✗ AWAY | 31.8% | 19.1% | 5.27 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
How to read this
A sustained positive ROI over a large sample would mean the model sees something the market misprices — that pattern (not individual picks) is the asset. A negative ROI means the market is better informed than the model, and each divergence is a measure of what the model is missing (team news, lineups, money flow). Either result is valuable; only the sample size makes it trustworthy.
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Paste this block into chat for analysis (summary, O/U board, open + settled).
# Edge Tracker — UEFA Champions League (2026-10-27 04:58 UTC) ## Summary - Open: **0** - Settled: **9** (wins 2/9) - Staked: **9.0** u · P&L **-5.56** u · ROI **-61.8%** - O/U 2.5 settled: **3** · P&L **+0.44** · ROI **+14.7%** - Rule: EV≥5% · 1X2 p≥28% · O/U p≥20% · max 1 position/match · flat 1u paper ## Upcoming O/U 2.5 board | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | Qualifies | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | none | ## Open positions | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | — | — | — | — | — | — | none | ## Settled positions | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | Score | Won | P&L | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---:| | 2026-10-21T19:00 | bayern vs arsenal | AWAY | 44.4% | 30.5% | 3.24 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-21T16:45 | como vs man-united | OVER 2.5 | 70.5% | 55.8% | 1.70 | 4-1 | Y | +0.70 | | 2026-10-20T19:00 | psg vs barcelona | AWAY | 48.2% | 37.9% | 2.60 | 4-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-14T19:00 | man-city vs psg | HOME | 61.4% | 38.5% | 2.50 | 2-4 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-14T19:00 | roma vs real-madrid | HOME | 40.0% | 23.1% | 4.32 | 3-4 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-13T19:00 | atletico vs man-united | AWAY | 39.9% | 31.4% | 3.11 | 2-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-09T19:00 | liverpool vs atletico | OVER 2.5 | 76.8% | 55.8% | 1.74 | 2-1 | Y | +0.74 | | 2026-09-09T19:00 | napoli vs arsenal | OVER 2.5 | 67.4% | 50.3% | 1.95 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-08T19:00 | real-madrid vs inter | AWAY | 31.8% | 19.1% | 5.27 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | _Paper positions only — not betting advice. ROI is noise below ~200 settled._