Premier League Power Ratings
Two-dimensional team strength (attack / defense) fitted on xG process data, converted to match probabilities through a Dixon-Coles engine. Live: preseason baseline corrected by 10 played matches — see gameweek predictions.
Match Predictor
| # | Team | Power | Δ season | Attack | Defense | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARS Arsenal | 84.8 | ▲ 0.3 | 88% | ||
| 2 | LIV Liverpool | 73.9 | ▼ 0.1 | 85% | ||
| 3 | MCI Manchester City | 73.7 | ▼ 0.3 | 85% | ||
| 4 | CHE Chelsea | 65.0 | ▲ 0.5 | 80% | ||
| 5 | NEW Newcastle United | 64.1 | ▲ 0.1 | 80% | ||
| 6 | BHA Brighton & Hove Albion | 58.9 | ▲ 2.9 | 78% | ||
| 7 | AVL Aston Villa | 57.6 | ▼ 2.9 | 80% | ||
| 8 | CRY Crystal Palace | 54.9 | ▼ 1.6 | 80% | ||
| 9 | MUN Manchester United | 54.9 | ▼ 2.1 | 73% | ||
| 10 | TOT Tottenham Hotspur | 54.8 | ▼ 2.2 | 73% | ||
| 11 | BRE Brentford | 54.2 | ▲ 2.2 | 78% | ||
| 12 | BOU AFC Bournemouth | 52.3 | ▲ 0.3 | 75% | ||
| 13 | FUL Fulham | 51.0 | ▼ 0.5 | 78% | ||
| 14 | NFO Nottingham Forest | 50.4 | ▼ 1.1 | 75% | ||
| 15 | EVE Everton | 50.1 | ▲ 1.6 | 78% | ||
| 16 | LEE Leeds United | 47.6 | ▲ 1.1 | 71% | ||
| 17 | SUN Sunderland | 42.3 | ▼ 0.7 | 71% | ||
| 18 | IPS Ipswich Town | 38.7 | ▲ 0.7 | 56% | ||
| 19 | HUL Hull City | 34.6 | ▲ 2.1 | 56% | ||
| 20 | COV Coventry City | 33.7 | ▼ 0.3 | 56% |
Scale: 50 = league average; each point ≈ 1.5% multiplicative change in expected goal output. Power = (Attack + Defense) / 2, display only — predictions always use the two underlying parameters. Δ season = movement vs the preseason baseline from played matches (surprise vs model expectation, capped per match — one result is mostly variance). Promoted clubs start with low confidence; it rises with sample.