Gameweek 9
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 12:30 | CHE vs MUN | 54.6% | 21.3% | 24.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 15:00 | BOU vs LEE | 46.3% | 24.3% | 29.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 15:00 | BRE vs NFO | 48.0% | 25.3% | 26.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 15:00 | COV vs SUN | 37.6% | 25.7% | 36.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 15:00 | HUL vs IPS | 41.5% | 25.2% | 33.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 15:00 | MCI vs BHA | 54.3% | 20.7% | 24.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 17:30 | TOT vs CRY | 50.1% | 22.9% | 27.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 20:00 | AVL vs FUL | 51.0% | 23.9% | 25.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 16:30 | LIV vs ARS | 33.0% | 27.4% | 39.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-02 20:00 | NEW vs EVE | 52.2% | 24.2% | 23.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.