HUL vs IPS
Hull City (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 56%
Match Outcome
HUL win 40.8% fair 2.45
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
IPS win 34.3% fair 2.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.3% / 25.2% / 35.5%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.45
—
1.36
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 IPS | 11.9% | |
| HUL 1-0 IPS | 8.7% | |
| HUL 2-1 IPS | 8.6% | |
| HUL 0-1 IPS | 8.2% | |
| HUL 1-2 IPS | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).