EDGERATING
Methodology

HUL vs IPS

Hull City (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 56%

Match Outcome

HUL win 40.8% fair 2.45
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
IPS win 34.3% fair 2.91

Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.3% / 25.2% / 35.5%.

Expected Goals

HUL 1.45 1.36 IPS
Over 2.5 goals53.3%fair 1.88
Under 2.5 goals46.7%fair 2.14
Both teams to score56.9%fair 1.76

Most Likely Scores

HUL 1-1 IPS11.9%
HUL 1-0 IPS8.7%
HUL 2-1 IPS8.6%
HUL 0-1 IPS8.2%
HUL 1-2 IPS8.1%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 6.0 8.2 5.6 2.5 0.9 0.3
1 8.7 11.9 8.1 3.7 1.3 0.4
2 6.3 8.6 5.9 2.7 0.9 0.3
3 3.0 4.1 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.2
4 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
5+ 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0

Rows: HUL goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

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