HUL vs IPS
Hull City (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 67% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 41.5% fair 2.41
Draw 25.2% fair 3.96
IPS win 33.3% fair 3.01
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.6% / 25.5% / 33.8%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.44
—
1.29
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 IPS | 12.1% | |
| HUL 1-0 IPS | 9.4% | |
| HUL 2-1 IPS | 8.7% | |
| HUL 0-1 IPS | 8.4% | |
| HUL 1-2 IPS | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).