EDGERATING
Methodology

Edge Tracker

Whenever the model's probability beats the best market price by 5%+ expected value, a flat 1-unit paper position is opened and later settled against the real result. This measures one thing only: does model–market divergence carry signal, or does the market simply know more? No real money, no recommendations.

Ledger Summary

Open positions
8
Settled
64
Hit rate
25/64
Units staked
64.0
P&L (units)
-3.14
ROI
-4.9%
O/U 2.5 settled
22
O/U 2.5 ROI
-10.8%

Entry rule: model probability × best price − 1 ≥ 5%; 1X2 model p ≥ 28%; O/U 2.5 model p ≥ 20%. At most one paper position per match (highest EV among qualifiers — no stacking 1X2 + Over). Locked at first open. Below ~200 settled positions the ROI is statistically meaningless — collect first, conclude later.

Upcoming O/U 2.5 board

No Over/Under 2.5 quotes in the latest snapshot (books may not list the 2.5 line yet, or the next odds refresh is pending).

Open Positions

Kickoff (UTC)MatchPosition ModelMarketPriceEV
10-31 12:30 CHE vs MUN HOME 54.6% 45.2% 2.15 +17.5%
10-31 15:00 BOU vs LEE OVER25 58.6% 52.0% 1.80 +5.5%
10-31 15:00 BRE vs NFO UNDER25 49.4% 43.7% 2.15 +6.1%
10-31 15:00 COV vs SUN HOME 38.2% 35.3% 2.79 +6.7%
10-31 15:00 HUL vs IPS HOME 41.4% 36.0% 2.70 +11.8%
10-31 17:30 TOT vs CRY AWAY 32.9% 20.5% 4.75 +56.4%
11-01 16:30 LIV vs ARS HOME 32.7% 28.4% 3.52 +15.1%
11-02 20:00 NEW vs EVE HOME 50.7% 44.1% 2.26 +14.5%

Settled Positions

Kickoff (UTC)MatchPosition ModelMarketPriceScoreP&L
10-25 16:30 SUN vs LEE ✗ HOME 36.2% 32.5% 3.03 0-0 -1.00
10-25 14:00 CRY vs NEW ✓ AWAY 40.1% 38.0% 2.65 0-2 +1.65
10-25 14:00 HUL vs BRE ✗ HOME 29.1% 19.8% 5.07 1-1 -1.00
10-25 14:00 LIV vs BHA ✓ HOME 50.1% 47.2% 2.11 2-0 +1.11
10-24 16:30 CHE vs TOT ✗ OVER25 70.7% 61.1% 1.53 0-2 -1.00
10-24 14:00 COV vs FUL ✓ AWAY 44.7% 41.5% 2.39 0-1 +1.39
10-24 14:00 ARS vs EVE ✓ UNDER25 52.7% 43.4% 2.15 2-0 +1.15
10-24 11:30 AVL vs MCI ✓ HOME 28.2% 21.8% 4.45 2-1 +3.45
10-23 19:00 IPS vs NFO ✓ UNDER25 50.8% 46.0% 2.09 1-1 +1.09
10-18 15:30 NFO vs ARS ✓ UNDER25 57.8% 50.3% 1.91 0-1 +0.91
10-18 13:00 BOU vs SUN ✗ OVER25 61.4% 52.7% 1.82 2-0 -1.00
10-18 13:00 LEE vs MUN ✗ HOME 39.4% 33.4% 2.94 1-1 -1.00
10-17 16:30 NEW vs AVL ✗ HOME 49.6% 45.3% 2.17 0-1 -1.00
10-17 14:00 FUL vs HUL ✓ UNDER25 53.5% 45.8% 2.05 1-0 +1.05
10-17 14:00 BRE vs LIV ✓ AWAY 46.2% 39.8% 2.50 1-2 +1.50
10-17 11:30 EVE vs CHE ✓ AWAY 43.2% 41.2% 2.45 0-2 +1.45
10-12 19:00 COV vs NEW ✗ AWAY 57.0% 47.0% 2.07 4-1 -1.00
10-11 15:30 LIV vs MCI ✗ HOME 42.3% 30.9% 3.15 0-3 -1.00
10-11 13:00 CRY vs NFO ✓ HOME 42.9% 37.9% 2.62 3-1 +1.62
10-11 13:00 HUL vs EVE ✗ HOME 32.6% 25.2% 4.00 2-2 -1.00
10-10 16:30 MUN vs TOT ✗ AWAY 29.8% 19.9% 5.07 1-1 -1.00
10-10 14:00 AVL vs BRE ✗ HOME 46.0% 33.2% 2.92 2-2 -1.00
10-10 14:00 CHE vs BOU ✓ HOME 56.9% 51.5% 1.90 5-1 +0.90
10-10 14:00 IPS vs FUL ✓ HOME 34.5% 32.2% 3.05 2-1 +2.05
10-10 14:00 SUN vs BHA ✗ OVER25 59.6% 49.2% 1.91 0-2 -1.00
09-20 15:30 FUL vs MUN ✗ HOME 38.5% 25.8% 3.81 1-1 -1.00
09-20 13:00 BOU vs LIV ✓ AWAY 51.2% 44.0% 2.24 0-1 +1.24
09-20 13:00 LEE vs CRY ✗ AWAY 36.2% 29.2% 3.38 0-0 -1.00
09-19 16:30 NFO vs COV ✗ HOME 55.7% 51.4% 1.89 0-1 -1.00
09-19 14:00 NEW vs HUL ✓ HOME 64.3% 60.2% 1.66 2-1 +0.66
09-19 11:30 TOT vs AVL ✓ OVER25 62.2% 49.2% 1.91 2-3 +0.91
09-18 19:00 BRE vs CHE ✗ AWAY 42.8% 37.5% 2.64 3-0 -1.00
09-14 19:00 LEE vs NEW ✗ AWAY 47.1% 36.8% 2.68 4-1 -1.00
09-13 15:30 MUN vs MCI ✓ AWAY 50.5% 44.1% 2.21 0-1 +1.21
09-13 13:00 COV vs BHA ✓ OVER25 64.8% 54.1% 1.83 0-5 +0.83
09-12 19:00 SUN vs ARS ✗ OVER25 56.2% 48.0% 2.08 0-2 -1.00
09-12 16:30 TOT vs EVE ✗ OVER25 58.1% 49.5% 1.98 0-0 -1.00
09-12 14:00 LIV vs FUL ✗ HOME 66.5% 63.4% 1.58 0-0 -1.00
09-12 14:00 CHE vs HUL ✗ HOME 71.3% 52.9% 2.89 2-2 -1.00
09-12 14:00 BOU vs BRE ✓ OVER25 61.3% 55.1% 1.81 2-2 +0.81
09-12 14:00 AVL vs NFO ✓ OVER25 54.6% 51.1% 1.95 1-2 +0.95
09-12 14:00 CRY vs IPS ✓ OVER25 59.4% 49.2% 2.02 2-3 +1.02
09-06 15:30 ARS vs CHE ✓ OVER25 60.0% 52.1% 1.91 2-1 +0.91
09-06 13:00 EVE vs MUN ✗ HOME 39.4% 31.3% 3.19 2-2 -1.00
09-05 16:30 HUL vs AVL ✗ OVER25 57.8% 51.3% 1.93 0-0 -1.00
09-05 14:00 BHA vs LEE ✗ OVER25 64.4% 51.7% 1.90 1-1 -1.00
09-05 14:00 FUL vs CRY ✓ AWAY 34.8% 31.4% 3.20 2-3 +2.20
09-05 14:00 NFO vs TOT ✗ OVER25 58.0% 46.3% 2.11 0-0 -1.00
09-05 14:00 MCI vs COV ✗ OVER25 76.4% 68.8% 1.38 1-0 -1.00
09-05 14:00 BRE vs SUN ✗ OVER25 58.1% 51.7% 1.88 1-1 -1.00
09-05 11:30 NEW vs BOU ✗ HOME 55.9% 40.9% 2.41 2-2 -1.00
09-04 19:00 IPS vs LIV ✗ OVER25 68.0% 60.4% 1.63 0-2 -1.00
08-31 19:00 AVL vs ARS ✗ OVER25 55.8% 53.2% 1.89 0-1 -1.00
08-30 15:30 MUN vs IPS ✗ DRAW 21.2% 18.8% 5.20 5-2 -1.00
08-30 15:30 MUN vs IPS ✗ AWAY 21.3% 13.2% 8.50 5-2 -1.00
08-30 13:00 SUN vs FUL ✗ AWAY 38.9% 31.8% 3.15 0-0 -1.00
08-30 13:00 CHE vs BHA ✗ AWAY 27.2% 23.5% 4.30 4-3 -1.00
08-30 13:00 LEE vs BRE ✗ AWAY 37.3% 34.8% 2.85 1-1 -1.00
08-30 13:00 LEE vs BRE ✗ HOME 38.5% 33.7% 2.98 1-1 -1.00
08-29 16:30 TOT vs NEW ✓ AWAY 40.8% 32.4% 3.10 0-2 +2.10
08-29 14:00 COV vs HUL ✓ AWAY 32.2% 22.2% 4.70 0-1 +3.70
08-29 14:00 BOU vs EVE ✗ AWAY 29.9% 26.8% 3.75 1-1 -1.00
08-29 11:30 LIV vs NFO ✗ AWAY 16.3% 16.0% 6.50 2-2 -1.00
08-28 19:00 CRY vs MCI ✗ HOME 28.1% 19.4% 5.20 1-4 -1.00

How to read this

A sustained positive ROI over a large sample would mean the model sees something the market misprices — that pattern (not individual picks) is the asset. A negative ROI means the market is better informed than the model, and each divergence is a measure of what the model is missing (team news, lineups, money flow). Either result is valuable; only the sample size makes it trustworthy.

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Paste this block into chat for analysis (summary, O/U board, open + settled). 

# Edge Tracker — Premier League (2026-10-27 03:25 UTC)

## Summary

- Open: **8**
- Settled: **64** (wins 25/64)
- Staked: **64.0** u · P&L **-3.14** u · ROI **-4.9%**
- O/U 2.5 settled: **22** · P&L **-2.37** · ROI **-10.8%**
- Rule: EV≥5% · 1X2 p≥28% · O/U p≥20% · max 1 position/match · flat 1u paper

## Upcoming O/U 2.5 board

| Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | none |

## Open positions

| Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2026-10-31T12:30 | chelsea vs man-united | HOME | 54.6% | 45.2% | 2.15 | +17.5% |
| 2026-10-31T15:00 | bournemouth vs leeds | OVER 2.5 | 58.6% | 52.0% | 1.80 | +5.5% |
| 2026-10-31T15:00 | brentford vs nottm-forest | UNDER 2.5 | 49.4% | 43.7% | 2.15 | +6.1% |
| 2026-10-31T15:00 | coventry vs sunderland | HOME | 38.2% | 35.3% | 2.79 | +6.7% |
| 2026-10-31T15:00 | hull vs ipswich | HOME | 41.4% | 36.0% | 2.70 | +11.8% |
| 2026-10-31T17:30 | tottenham vs crystal-palace | AWAY | 32.9% | 20.5% | 4.75 | +56.4% |
| 2026-11-01T16:30 | liverpool vs arsenal | HOME | 32.7% | 28.4% | 3.52 | +15.1% |
| 2026-11-02T20:00 | newcastle vs everton | HOME | 50.7% | 44.1% | 2.26 | +14.5% |

## Settled positions

| Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | Score | Won | P&L |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---:|
| 2026-10-25T16:30 | sunderland vs leeds | HOME | 36.2% | 32.5% | 3.03 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-25T14:00 | crystal-palace vs newcastle | AWAY | 40.1% | 38.0% | 2.65 | 0-2 | Y | +1.65 |
| 2026-10-25T14:00 | hull vs brentford | HOME | 29.1% | 19.8% | 5.07 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-25T14:00 | liverpool vs brighton | HOME | 50.1% | 47.2% | 2.11 | 2-0 | Y | +1.11 |
| 2026-10-24T16:30 | chelsea vs tottenham | OVER 2.5 | 70.7% | 61.1% | 1.53 | 0-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-24T14:00 | coventry vs fulham | AWAY | 44.7% | 41.5% | 2.39 | 0-1 | Y | +1.39 |
| 2026-10-24T14:00 | arsenal vs everton | UNDER 2.5 | 52.7% | 43.4% | 2.15 | 2-0 | Y | +1.15 |
| 2026-10-24T11:30 | aston-villa vs man-city | HOME | 28.2% | 21.8% | 4.45 | 2-1 | Y | +3.45 |
| 2026-10-23T19:00 | ipswich vs nottm-forest | UNDER 2.5 | 50.8% | 46.0% | 2.09 | 1-1 | Y | +1.09 |
| 2026-10-18T15:30 | nottm-forest vs arsenal | UNDER 2.5 | 57.8% | 50.3% | 1.91 | 0-1 | Y | +0.91 |
| 2026-10-18T13:00 | bournemouth vs sunderland | OVER 2.5 | 61.4% | 52.7% | 1.82 | 2-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-18T13:00 | leeds vs man-united | HOME | 39.4% | 33.4% | 2.94 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-17T16:30 | newcastle vs aston-villa | HOME | 49.6% | 45.3% | 2.17 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-17T14:00 | fulham vs hull | UNDER 2.5 | 53.5% | 45.8% | 2.05 | 1-0 | Y | +1.05 |
| 2026-10-17T14:00 | brentford vs liverpool | AWAY | 46.2% | 39.8% | 2.50 | 1-2 | Y | +1.50 |
| 2026-10-17T11:30 | everton vs chelsea | AWAY | 43.2% | 41.2% | 2.45 | 0-2 | Y | +1.45 |
| 2026-10-12T19:00 | coventry vs newcastle | AWAY | 57.0% | 47.0% | 2.07 | 4-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-11T15:30 | liverpool vs man-city | HOME | 42.3% | 30.9% | 3.15 | 0-3 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-11T13:00 | crystal-palace vs nottm-forest | HOME | 42.9% | 37.9% | 2.62 | 3-1 | Y | +1.62 |
| 2026-10-11T13:00 | hull vs everton | HOME | 32.6% | 25.2% | 4.00 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-10T16:30 | man-united vs tottenham | AWAY | 29.8% | 19.9% | 5.07 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-10T14:00 | aston-villa vs brentford | HOME | 46.0% | 33.2% | 2.92 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-10T14:00 | chelsea vs bournemouth | HOME | 56.9% | 51.5% | 1.90 | 5-1 | Y | +0.90 |
| 2026-10-10T14:00 | ipswich vs fulham | HOME | 34.5% | 32.2% | 3.05 | 2-1 | Y | +2.05 |
| 2026-10-10T14:00 | sunderland vs brighton | OVER 2.5 | 59.6% | 49.2% | 1.91 | 0-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-20T15:30 | fulham vs man-united | HOME | 38.5% | 25.8% | 3.81 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-20T13:00 | bournemouth vs liverpool | AWAY | 51.2% | 44.0% | 2.24 | 0-1 | Y | +1.24 |
| 2026-09-20T13:00 | leeds vs crystal-palace | AWAY | 36.2% | 29.2% | 3.38 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-19T16:30 | nottm-forest vs coventry | HOME | 55.7% | 51.4% | 1.89 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-19T14:00 | newcastle vs hull | HOME | 64.3% | 60.2% | 1.66 | 2-1 | Y | +0.66 |
| 2026-09-19T11:30 | tottenham vs aston-villa | OVER 2.5 | 62.2% | 49.2% | 1.91 | 2-3 | Y | +0.91 |
| 2026-09-18T19:00 | brentford vs chelsea | AWAY | 42.8% | 37.5% | 2.64 | 3-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-14T19:00 | leeds vs newcastle | AWAY | 47.1% | 36.8% | 2.68 | 4-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-13T15:30 | man-united vs man-city | AWAY | 50.5% | 44.1% | 2.21 | 0-1 | Y | +1.21 |
| 2026-09-13T13:00 | coventry vs brighton | OVER 2.5 | 64.8% | 54.1% | 1.83 | 0-5 | Y | +0.83 |
| 2026-09-12T19:00 | sunderland vs arsenal | OVER 2.5 | 56.2% | 48.0% | 2.08 | 0-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-12T16:30 | tottenham vs everton | OVER 2.5 | 58.1% | 49.5% | 1.98 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-12T14:00 | liverpool vs fulham | HOME | 66.5% | 63.4% | 1.58 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-12T14:00 | chelsea vs hull | HOME | 71.3% | 52.9% | 2.89 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-12T14:00 | bournemouth vs brentford | OVER 2.5 | 61.3% | 55.1% | 1.81 | 2-2 | Y | +0.81 |
| 2026-09-12T14:00 | aston-villa vs nottm-forest | OVER 2.5 | 54.6% | 51.1% | 1.95 | 1-2 | Y | +0.95 |
| 2026-09-12T14:00 | crystal-palace vs ipswich | OVER 2.5 | 59.4% | 49.2% | 2.02 | 2-3 | Y | +1.02 |
| 2026-09-06T15:30 | arsenal vs chelsea | OVER 2.5 | 60.0% | 52.1% | 1.91 | 2-1 | Y | +0.91 |
| 2026-09-06T13:00 | everton vs man-united | HOME | 39.4% | 31.3% | 3.19 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-05T16:30 | hull vs aston-villa | OVER 2.5 | 57.8% | 51.3% | 1.93 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-05T14:00 | brighton vs leeds | OVER 2.5 | 64.4% | 51.7% | 1.90 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-05T14:00 | fulham vs crystal-palace | AWAY | 34.8% | 31.4% | 3.20 | 2-3 | Y | +2.20 |
| 2026-09-05T14:00 | nottm-forest vs tottenham | OVER 2.5 | 58.0% | 46.3% | 2.11 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-05T14:00 | man-city vs coventry | OVER 2.5 | 76.4% | 68.8% | 1.38 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-05T14:00 | brentford vs sunderland | OVER 2.5 | 58.1% | 51.7% | 1.88 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-05T11:30 | newcastle vs bournemouth | HOME | 55.9% | 40.9% | 2.41 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-04T19:00 | ipswich vs liverpool | OVER 2.5 | 68.0% | 60.4% | 1.63 | 0-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-31T19:00 | aston-villa vs arsenal | OVER 2.5 | 55.8% | 53.2% | 1.89 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-30T15:30 | man-united vs ipswich | DRAW | 21.2% | 18.8% | 5.20 | 5-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-30T15:30 | man-united vs ipswich | AWAY | 21.3% | 13.2% | 8.50 | 5-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-30T13:00 | sunderland vs fulham | AWAY | 38.9% | 31.8% | 3.15 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-30T13:00 | chelsea vs brighton | AWAY | 27.2% | 23.5% | 4.30 | 4-3 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-30T13:00 | leeds vs brentford | AWAY | 37.3% | 34.8% | 2.85 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-30T13:00 | leeds vs brentford | HOME | 38.5% | 33.7% | 2.98 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-29T16:30 | tottenham vs newcastle | AWAY | 40.8% | 32.4% | 3.10 | 0-2 | Y | +2.10 |
| 2026-08-29T14:00 | coventry vs hull | AWAY | 32.2% | 22.2% | 4.70 | 0-1 | Y | +3.70 |
| 2026-08-29T14:00 | bournemouth vs everton | AWAY | 29.9% | 26.8% | 3.75 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-29T11:30 | liverpool vs nottm-forest | AWAY | 16.3% | 16.0% | 6.50 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-28T19:00 | crystal-palace vs man-city | HOME | 28.1% | 19.4% | 5.20 | 1-4 | N | -1.00 |

_Paper positions only — not betting advice. ROI is noise below ~200 settled._