Ligue 1 Power Ratings

Two-dimensional team strength (attack / defense) fitted on xG process data, converted to match probabilities through a Dixon-Coles engine. Live: preseason baseline corrected by 72 played matches — see gameweek predictions.

Match Predictor

#	Team	Power	Δ season	Attack	Defense	Confidence
1	PSG Paris Saint-Germain	73.2	▲ 0.2	72	73	88%
2	RCL Lens	63.4	▼ 1.6	65	61	84%
3	OL Lyon	60.1	▲ 2.6	55	64	82%
4	OM Marseille	59.8	▲ 0.8	67	51	82%
5	LIL Lille	59.6	▲ 0.6	51	67	84%
6	ASM Monaco	56.3	▲ 3.3	58	54	81%
7	REN Rennes	56.0	▲ 1.5	65	46	82%
8	PFC Paris FC	52.2	▲ 3.2	50	54	80%
9	TFC Toulouse	50.8	▲ 0.3	48	52	81%
10	STR Strasbourg	50.1	▼ 4.9	54	45	82%
11	FCL Lorient	49.3	▲ 0.3	42	56	80%
12	SB29 Brest	45.6	▲ 1.6	47	43	80%
13	AJA Auxerre	40.7	▼ 2.8	35	45	80%
14	HAC Le Havre	40.2	▼ 3.3	30	49	80%
15	OGC Nice	39.6	▲ 1.6	34	44	78%
16	SCO Angers	38.6	▼ 1.9	30	46	80%
17	LMFC Le Mans	34.9	▲ 0.9	34	35	65%
18	EST Troyes	33.6	▼ 2.4	28	39	67%

Scale: 50 = league average; each point ≈ 1.5% multiplicative change in expected goal output. Power = (Attack + Defense) / 2, display only — predictions always use the two underlying parameters. Δ season = movement vs the preseason baseline from played matches (surprise vs model expectation, capped per match — one result is mostly variance). Promoted clubs start with low confidence; it rises with sample.