Edge Tracker
Whenever the model's probability beats the best market price by 5%+ expected value, a flat 1-unit paper position is opened and later settled against the real result. This measures one thing only: does model–market divergence carry signal, or does the market simply know more? No real money, no recommendations.
Ledger Summary
Open positions
2
Settled
62
Hit rate
21/62
Units staked
62.0
P&L (units)
-3.48
ROI
-5.6%
O/U 2.5 settled
21
O/U 2.5 ROI
-19.7%
Entry rule: model probability × best price − 1 ≥ 5%; 1X2 model p ≥ 28%; O/U 2.5 model p ≥ 20%. At most one paper position per match (highest EV among qualifiers — no stacking 1X2 + Over). Locked at first open. Below ~200 settled positions the ROI is statistically meaningless — collect first, conclude later.
Upcoming O/U 2.5 board
No Over/Under 2.5 quotes in the latest snapshot (books may not list the 2.5 line yet, or the next odds refresh is pending).
Open Positions
| Kickoff (UTC) | Match | Position | Model | Market | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 15:15 | TFC vs EST | HOME | 60.3% | 56.4% | 1.75 | +5.5% |
| 10-25 19:45 | PSG vs OL | UNDER25 | 43.1% | 34.8% | 2.70 | +16.3% |
Settled Positions
| Kickoff (UTC) | Match | Position | Model | Market | Price | Score | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 16:15 | SCO vs FCL | ✗ AWAY | 37.8% | 33.7% | 2.85 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-25 16:15 | AJA vs LMFC | ✗ HOME | 47.2% | 41.8% | 2.33 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-25 16:15 | OM vs HAC | ✗ UNDER25 | 48.1% | 43.1% | 2.20 | 4-3 | -1.00 |
| 10-25 16:15 | REN vs STR | ✗ AWAY | 32.0% | 22.7% | 4.40 | 3-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-25 14:00 | ASM vs LIL | ✗ AWAY | 34.1% | 28.9% | 3.39 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-24 18:45 | RCL vs PFC | ✓ HOME | 53.6% | 45.1% | 2.16 | 2-1 | +1.16 |
| 10-23 18:45 | SB29 vs OGC | ✗ HOME | 51.2% | 44.9% | 2.19 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 10-18 18:45 | OL vs OGC | ✓ HOME | 64.0% | 57.1% | 1.71 | 2-1 | +0.71 |
| 10-18 15:15 | HAC vs AJA | ✗ UNDER25 | 59.5% | 49.0% | 1.96 | 1-3 | -1.00 |
| 10-18 15:15 | FCL vs ASM | ✓ HOME | 35.6% | 26.8% | 3.65 | 1-0 | +2.65 |
| 10-18 15:15 | PFC vs REN | ✗ AWAY | 32.4% | 31.6% | 3.29 | 4-3 | -1.00 |
| 10-18 13:00 | SCO vs OM | ✗ UNDER25 | 47.8% | 41.9% | 2.25 | 2-5 | -1.00 |
| 10-17 18:45 | LIL vs SB29 | ✗ HOME | 56.5% | 53.2% | 1.86 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-17 18:45 | EST vs RCL | ✓ AWAY | 56.1% | 52.0% | 1.90 | 1-3 | +0.90 |
| 10-17 15:15 | STR vs PSG | ✗ HOME | 29.3% | 15.1% | 6.80 | 1-3 | -1.00 |
| 10-16 18:45 | LMFC vs TFC | ✗ HOME | 34.0% | 30.6% | 3.30 | 0-3 | -1.00 |
| 10-11 18:45 | EST vs OM | ✓ AWAY | 51.4% | 49.5% | 2.06 | 0-2 | +1.06 |
| 10-11 13:00 | OGC vs STR | ✗ AWAY | 48.5% | 28.2% | 3.51 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-10 18:45 | FCL vs PFC | ✓ HOME | 41.1% | 38.6% | 2.57 | 1-0 | +1.57 |
| 10-10 18:45 | SB29 vs SCO | ✗ AWAY | 28.3% | 25.8% | 3.92 | 5-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-10 18:45 | ASM vs TFC | ✓ OVER25 | 62.4% | 57.2% | 1.72 | 2-2 | +0.72 |
| 10-10 18:45 | PSG vs LMFC | ✗ UNDER25 | 29.4% | 22.5% | 4.20 | 3-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-10 15:15 | LIL vs HAC | ✓ UNDER25 | 56.5% | 44.7% | 2.20 | 1-0 | +1.20 |
| 10-09 18:45 | RCL vs OL | ✗ UNDER25 | 43.7% | 39.7% | 2.48 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-20 18:45 | OM vs PSG | ✗ HOME | 35.0% | 22.4% | 4.58 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 09-20 15:15 | OGC vs LIL | ✗ AWAY | 51.8% | 47.2% | 2.17 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-20 13:00 | AJA vs SB29 | ✓ HOME | 39.7% | 35.9% | 2.80 | 2-1 | +1.80 |
| 09-19 18:45 | SCO vs EST | ✗ OVER25 | 49.6% | 44.2% | 2.15 | 2-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-19 18:45 | LMFC vs FCL | ✗ AWAY | 42.6% | 40.4% | 2.48 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-19 18:45 | OL vs REN | ✗ AWAY | 28.6% | 26.9% | 3.70 | 4-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-19 18:45 | TFC vs HAC | ✗ UNDER25 | 56.2% | 51.0% | 1.88 | 3-2 | -1.00 |
| 09-19 15:15 | PFC vs STR | ✗ AWAY | 35.8% | 29.2% | 3.45 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-18 18:45 | ASM vs RCL | ✗ AWAY | 37.9% | 33.0% | 3.00 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-13 18:45 | SB29 vs PSG | ✓ UNDER25 | 30.6% | 25.2% | 3.70 | 0-1 | +2.70 |
| 09-13 15:15 | LMFC vs RCL | ✓ OVER25 | 65.9% | 54.7% | 1.75 | 2-2 | +0.75 |
| 09-13 13:00 | LIL vs EST | ✗ OVER25 | 57.4% | 55.1% | 1.84 | 2-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-12 18:45 | AJA vs OGC | ✓ HOME | 45.7% | 39.1% | 2.57 | 1-0 | +1.57 |
| 09-12 18:45 | FCL vs TFC | ✓ OVER25 | 56.6% | 45.9% | 2.12 | 2-2 | +1.12 |
| 09-12 18:45 | PFC vs OL | ✗ HOME | 36.2% | 32.9% | 3.02 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-12 18:45 | HAC vs SCO | ✓ UNDER25 | 61.7% | 56.4% | 1.73 | 0-0 | +0.73 |
| 09-12 15:15 | STR vs ASM | ✗ HOME | 45.5% | 31.4% | 3.15 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-11 18:45 | REN vs OM | ✗ OVER25 | 70.1% | 58.8% | 1.62 | 1-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-06 18:45 | OM vs PFC | ✓ OVER25 | 62.9% | 59.8% | 1.69 | 2-3 | +0.69 |
| 09-06 15:15 | SCO vs REN | ✗ HOME | 32.6% | 23.4% | 4.32 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 09-06 13:00 | EST vs STR | ✓ OVER25 | 59.7% | 50.3% | 1.96 | 2-6 | +0.96 |
| 09-05 18:45 | HAC vs SB29 | ✗ HOME | 42.6% | 37.2% | 2.69 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 09-05 18:45 | OGC vs LMFC | ✗ AWAY | 29.3% | 21.1% | 4.80 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-05 15:15 | RCL vs FCL | ✗ OVER25 | 64.6% | 57.1% | 1.70 | 0-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-04 19:05 | PSG vs ASM | ✗ UNDER25 | 32.9% | 28.3% | 3.30 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 09-04 17:00 | OL vs AJA | ✗ UNDER25 | 46.7% | 40.6% | 2.30 | 3-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-03 18:45 | TFC vs LIL | ✗ OVER25 | 54.3% | 47.3% | 2.10 | 0-1 | -1.00 |
| 08-30 18:45 | ASM vs OM | ✗ AWAY | 39.6% | 34.8% | 2.88 | 2-0 | -1.00 |
| 08-30 15:15 | REN vs LMFC | ✗ AWAY | 18.0% | 13.9% | 7.80 | 3-2 | -1.00 |
| 08-30 13:00 | PFC vs OGC | ✓ HOME | 52.7% | 45.5% | 2.17 | 2-0 | +1.17 |
| 08-29 18:45 | AJA vs SCO | ✓ AWAY | 28.6% | 23.7% | 4.25 | 1-2 | +3.25 |
| 08-29 18:45 | SB29 vs TFC | ✗ HOME | 39.7% | 35.8% | 2.78 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 18:45 | OL vs HAC | ✗ DRAW | 24.4% | 20.7% | 4.80 | 0-1 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 18:45 | OL vs HAC | ✓ AWAY | 20.5% | 14.0% | 7.50 | 0-1 | +6.50 |
| 08-29 18:45 | FCL vs EST | ✓ AWAY | 22.9% | 22.1% | 4.60 | 1-2 | +3.60 |
| 08-29 18:45 | FCL vs EST | ✗ HOME | 53.8% | 50.6% | 1.95 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 15:15 | STR vs RCL | ✓ HOME | 32.6% | 26.9% | 3.71 | 2-1 | +2.71 |
| 08-28 18:45 | LIL vs PSG | ✗ HOME | 33.0% | 19.3% | 5.30 | 2-2 | -1.00 |
How to read this
A sustained positive ROI over a large sample would mean the model sees something the market misprices — that pattern (not individual picks) is the asset. A negative ROI means the market is better informed than the model, and each divergence is a measure of what the model is missing (team news, lineups, money flow). Either result is valuable; only the sample size makes it trustworthy.
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Paste this block into chat for analysis (summary, O/U board, open + settled).
# Edge Tracker — Ligue 1 (2026-10-27 04:58 UTC) ## Summary - Open: **2** - Settled: **62** (wins 21/62) - Staked: **62.0** u · P&L **-3.48** u · ROI **-5.6%** - O/U 2.5 settled: **21** · P&L **-4.13** · ROI **-19.7%** - Rule: EV≥5% · 1X2 p≥28% · O/U p≥20% · max 1 position/match · flat 1u paper ## Upcoming O/U 2.5 board | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | Qualifies | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | none | ## Open positions | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2026-10-24T15:15 | toulouse vs troyes | HOME | 60.3% | 56.4% | 1.75 | +5.5% | | 2026-10-25T19:45 | psg vs lyon | UNDER 2.5 | 43.1% | 34.8% | 2.70 | +16.3% | ## Settled positions | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | Score | Won | P&L | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---:| | 2026-10-25T16:15 | angers vs lorient | AWAY | 37.8% | 33.7% | 2.85 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-25T16:15 | auxerre vs le-mans | HOME | 47.2% | 41.8% | 2.33 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-25T16:15 | marseille vs le-havre | UNDER 2.5 | 48.1% | 43.1% | 2.20 | 4-3 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-25T16:15 | rennes vs strasbourg | AWAY | 32.0% | 22.7% | 4.40 | 3-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-25T14:00 | monaco vs lille | AWAY | 34.1% | 28.9% | 3.39 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-24T18:45 | lens vs paris-fc | HOME | 53.6% | 45.1% | 2.16 | 2-1 | Y | +1.16 | | 2026-10-23T18:45 | brest vs nice | HOME | 51.2% | 44.9% | 2.19 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-18T18:45 | lyon vs nice | HOME | 64.0% | 57.1% | 1.71 | 2-1 | Y | +0.71 | | 2026-10-18T15:15 | le-havre vs auxerre | UNDER 2.5 | 59.5% | 49.0% | 1.96 | 1-3 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-18T15:15 | lorient vs monaco | HOME | 35.6% | 26.8% | 3.65 | 1-0 | Y | +2.65 | | 2026-10-18T15:15 | paris-fc vs rennes | AWAY | 32.4% | 31.6% | 3.29 | 4-3 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-18T13:00 | angers vs marseille | UNDER 2.5 | 47.8% | 41.9% | 2.25 | 2-5 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-17T18:45 | lille vs brest | HOME | 56.5% | 53.2% | 1.86 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-17T18:45 | troyes vs lens | AWAY | 56.1% | 52.0% | 1.90 | 1-3 | Y | +0.90 | | 2026-10-17T15:15 | strasbourg vs psg | HOME | 29.3% | 15.1% | 6.80 | 1-3 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-16T18:45 | le-mans vs toulouse | HOME | 34.0% | 30.6% | 3.30 | 0-3 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-11T18:45 | troyes vs marseille | AWAY | 51.4% | 49.5% | 2.06 | 0-2 | Y | +1.06 | | 2026-10-11T13:00 | nice vs strasbourg | AWAY | 48.5% | 28.2% | 3.51 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-10T18:45 | lorient vs paris-fc | HOME | 41.1% | 38.6% | 2.57 | 1-0 | Y | +1.57 | | 2026-10-10T18:45 | brest vs angers | AWAY | 28.3% | 25.8% | 3.92 | 5-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-10T18:45 | monaco vs toulouse | OVER 2.5 | 62.4% | 57.2% | 1.72 | 2-2 | Y | +0.72 | | 2026-10-10T18:45 | psg vs le-mans | UNDER 2.5 | 29.4% | 22.5% | 4.20 | 3-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-10T15:15 | lille vs le-havre | UNDER 2.5 | 56.5% | 44.7% | 2.20 | 1-0 | Y | +1.20 | | 2026-10-09T18:45 | lens vs lyon | UNDER 2.5 | 43.7% | 39.7% | 2.48 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-20T18:45 | marseille vs psg | HOME | 35.0% | 22.4% | 4.58 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-20T15:15 | nice vs lille | AWAY | 51.8% | 47.2% | 2.17 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-20T13:00 | auxerre vs brest | HOME | 39.7% | 35.9% | 2.80 | 2-1 | Y | +1.80 | | 2026-09-19T18:45 | angers vs troyes | OVER 2.5 | 49.6% | 44.2% | 2.15 | 2-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-19T18:45 | le-mans vs lorient | AWAY | 42.6% | 40.4% | 2.48 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-19T18:45 | lyon vs rennes | AWAY | 28.6% | 26.9% | 3.70 | 4-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-19T18:45 | toulouse vs le-havre | UNDER 2.5 | 56.2% | 51.0% | 1.88 | 3-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-19T15:15 | paris-fc vs strasbourg | AWAY | 35.8% | 29.2% | 3.45 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-18T18:45 | monaco vs lens | AWAY | 37.9% | 33.0% | 3.00 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-13T18:45 | brest vs psg | UNDER 2.5 | 30.6% | 25.2% | 3.70 | 0-1 | Y | +2.70 | | 2026-09-13T15:15 | le-mans vs lens | OVER 2.5 | 65.9% | 54.7% | 1.75 | 2-2 | Y | +0.75 | | 2026-09-13T13:00 | lille vs troyes | OVER 2.5 | 57.4% | 55.1% | 1.84 | 2-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-12T18:45 | auxerre vs nice | HOME | 45.7% | 39.1% | 2.57 | 1-0 | Y | +1.57 | | 2026-09-12T18:45 | lorient vs toulouse | OVER 2.5 | 56.6% | 45.9% | 2.12 | 2-2 | Y | +1.12 | | 2026-09-12T18:45 | paris-fc vs lyon | HOME | 36.2% | 32.9% | 3.02 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-12T18:45 | le-havre vs angers | UNDER 2.5 | 61.7% | 56.4% | 1.73 | 0-0 | Y | +0.73 | | 2026-09-12T15:15 | strasbourg vs monaco | HOME | 45.5% | 31.4% | 3.15 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-11T18:45 | rennes vs marseille | OVER 2.5 | 70.1% | 58.8% | 1.62 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-06T18:45 | marseille vs paris-fc | OVER 2.5 | 62.9% | 59.8% | 1.69 | 2-3 | Y | +0.69 | | 2026-09-06T15:15 | angers vs rennes | HOME | 32.6% | 23.4% | 4.32 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-06T13:00 | troyes vs strasbourg | OVER 2.5 | 59.7% | 50.3% | 1.96 | 2-6 | Y | +0.96 | | 2026-09-05T18:45 | le-havre vs brest | HOME | 42.6% | 37.2% | 2.69 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-05T18:45 | nice vs le-mans | AWAY | 29.3% | 21.1% | 4.80 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-05T15:15 | lens vs lorient | OVER 2.5 | 64.6% | 57.1% | 1.70 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-04T19:05 | psg vs monaco | UNDER 2.5 | 32.9% | 28.3% | 3.30 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-04T17:00 | lyon vs auxerre | UNDER 2.5 | 46.7% | 40.6% | 2.30 | 3-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-03T18:45 | toulouse vs lille | OVER 2.5 | 54.3% | 47.3% | 2.10 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-30T18:45 | monaco vs marseille | AWAY | 39.6% | 34.8% | 2.88 | 2-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-30T15:15 | rennes vs le-mans | AWAY | 18.0% | 13.9% | 7.80 | 3-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-30T13:00 | paris-fc vs nice | HOME | 52.7% | 45.5% | 2.17 | 2-0 | Y | +1.17 | | 2026-08-29T18:45 | auxerre vs angers | AWAY | 28.6% | 23.7% | 4.25 | 1-2 | Y | +3.25 | | 2026-08-29T18:45 | brest vs toulouse | HOME | 39.7% | 35.8% | 2.78 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T18:45 | lyon vs le-havre | DRAW | 24.4% | 20.7% | 4.80 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T18:45 | lyon vs le-havre | AWAY | 20.5% | 14.0% | 7.50 | 0-1 | Y | +6.50 | | 2026-08-29T18:45 | lorient vs troyes | AWAY | 22.9% | 22.1% | 4.60 | 1-2 | Y | +3.60 | | 2026-08-29T18:45 | lorient vs troyes | HOME | 53.8% | 50.6% | 1.95 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T15:15 | strasbourg vs lens | HOME | 32.6% | 26.9% | 3.71 | 2-1 | Y | +2.71 | | 2026-08-28T18:45 | lille vs psg | HOME | 33.0% | 19.3% | 5.30 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 | _Paper positions only — not betting advice. ROI is noise below ~200 settled._