Bundesliga Power Ratings

Two-dimensional team strength (attack / defense) fitted on xG process data, converted to match probabilities through a Dixon-Coles engine. Live: preseason baseline corrected by 63 played matches — see gameweek predictions.

Match Predictor

#	Team	Power	Δ season	Attack	Defense	Confidence
1	BAY Bayern Munich	82.6	▲ 4.1	88	76	89%
2	BVB Borussia Dortmund	67.2	▼ 0.3	58	76	86%
3	RBL RB Leipzig	63.1	▲ 3.6	68	58	83%
4	B04 Bayer Leverkusen	60.1	▼ 0.4	64	55	83%
5	VFB VfB Stuttgart	56.1	▼ 3.9	58	53	83%
6	TSG TSG Hoffenheim	54.4	▼ 1.6	59	49	82%
7	SCF SC Freiburg	52.6	▲ 4.6	52	52	82%
8	FCA FC Augsburg	46.4	▲ 3.9	48	43	80%
9	M05 Mainz 05	45.2	▲ 0.7	44	46	80%
10	SGE Eintracht Frankfurt	44.9	▼ 3.1	52	37	80%
11	SVW Werder Bremen	42.2	▲ 3.7	40	43	80%
12	KOE 1. FC Köln	42.0	▼ 2.0	39	44	80%
13	HSV Hamburger SV	39.6	▼ 3.4	31	47	80%
14	S04 Schalke 04	39.4	▲ 0.4	27	50	66%
15	ELV SV Elversberg	39.2	▲ 1.7	40	37	64%
16	FCU Union Berlin	38.6	▼ 4.4	33	43	80%
17	BMG Borussia Mönchengladbach	38.5	▼ 5.0	38	38	80%
18	SCP SC Paderborn	37.4	▲ 1.4	31	43	64%

Scale: 50 = league average; each point ≈ 1.5% multiplicative change in expected goal output. Power = (Attack + Defense) / 2, display only — predictions always use the two underlying parameters. Δ season = movement vs the preseason baseline from played matches (surprise vs model expectation, capped per match — one result is mostly variance). Promoted clubs start with low confidence; it rises with sample.