Edge Tracker
Whenever the model's probability beats the best market price by 5%+ expected value, a flat 1-unit paper position is opened and later settled against the real result. This measures one thing only: does model–market divergence carry signal, or does the market simply know more? No real money, no recommendations.
Ledger Summary
Open positions
0
Settled
54
Hit rate
22/54
Units staked
54.0
P&L (units)
+7.53
ROI
+13.9%
O/U 2.5 settled
18
O/U 2.5 ROI
-12.9%
Entry rule: model probability × best price − 1 ≥ 5%; 1X2 model p ≥ 28%; O/U 2.5 model p ≥ 20%. At most one paper position per match (highest EV among qualifiers — no stacking 1X2 + Over). Locked at first open. Below ~200 settled positions the ROI is statistically meaningless — collect first, conclude later.
Upcoming O/U 2.5 board
No Over/Under 2.5 quotes in the latest snapshot (books may not list the 2.5 line yet, or the next odds refresh is pending).
Settled Positions
| Kickoff (UTC) | Match | Position | Model | Market | Price | Score | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 16:30 | SCF vs BAY | ✗ UNDER25 | 26.5% | 23.8% | 4.00 | 1-3 | -1.00 |
| 10-25 14:30 | TSG vs B04 | ✓ OVER25 | 78.1% | 70.3% | 1.35 | 3-0 | +0.35 |
| 10-24 16:30 | BVB vs SGE | ✗ OVER25 | 79.1% | 71.0% | 1.33 | 1-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-24 13:30 | SCP vs HSV | ✓ UNDER25 | 44.3% | 35.5% | 2.62 | 1-0 | +1.62 |
| 10-24 13:30 | M05 vs SVW | ✓ AWAY | 28.8% | 22.2% | 4.67 | 2-3 | +3.67 |
| 10-24 13:30 | FCA vs FCU | ✗ HOME | 55.3% | 52.2% | 1.96 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-24 13:30 | KOE vs S04 | ✗ AWAY | 29.9% | 27.9% | 3.70 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-18 15:30 | BMG vs TSG | ✗ HOME | 32.1% | 28.4% | 3.58 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 10-18 13:30 | B04 vs SCF | ✓ OVER25 | 74.1% | 64.5% | 1.44 | 2-1 | +0.44 |
| 10-17 16:30 | BAY vs RBL | ✗ UNDER25 | 23.4% | 19.0% | 5.00 | 6-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-17 13:30 | ELV vs FCA | ✗ AWAY | 38.7% | 36.0% | 2.75 | 4-3 | -1.00 |
| 10-17 13:30 | S04 vs M05 | ✗ HOME | 39.2% | 32.9% | 3.05 | 0-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-17 13:30 | SVW vs SCP | ✗ AWAY | 28.2% | 23.4% | 4.21 | 2-2 | -1.00 |
| 10-17 13:30 | FCU vs BVB | ✗ AWAY | 61.3% | 57.8% | 1.73 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-17 13:30 | HSV vs VFB | ✓ UNDER25 | 37.5% | 31.9% | 2.90 | 1-0 | +1.90 |
| 10-16 00:00 | SGE vs KOE | ✗ OVER25 | 79.0% | 67.4% | 1.40 | 1-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-11 13:30 | KOE vs BMG | ✗ AWAY | 28.1% | 26.5% | 3.85 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-09 00:00 | BVB vs SVW | ✗ UNDER25 | 39.1% | 31.2% | 3.00 | 2-2 | -1.00 |
| 09-20 17:30 | SCP vs TSG | ✓ HOME | 29.8% | 21.2% | 4.75 | 3-1 | +3.75 |
| 09-20 15:30 | S04 vs ELV | ✗ AWAY | 33.5% | 22.1% | 4.47 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-20 13:30 | B04 vs RBL | ✗ AWAY | 30.4% | 26.5% | 3.72 | 2-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-19 16:30 | VFB vs BVB | ✓ AWAY | 41.2% | 33.3% | 3.06 | 0-1 | +2.06 |
| 09-19 13:30 | SVW vs FCA | ✗ AWAY | 39.1% | 32.6% | 3.10 | 3-2 | -1.00 |
| 09-19 13:30 | HSV vs KOE | ✓ HOME | 40.9% | 37.4% | 2.65 | 2-1 | +1.65 |
| 09-19 13:30 | SGE vs SCF | ✓ OVER25 | 75.6% | 58.7% | 1.62 | 2-2 | +0.62 |
| 09-19 13:30 | BMG vs M05 | ✗ UNDER25 | 45.0% | 39.8% | 2.38 | 3-4 | -1.00 |
| 09-13 13:30 | RBL vs HSV | ✗ UNDER25 | 33.7% | 27.1% | 3.50 | 5-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-12 16:30 | KOE vs SVW | ✗ HOME | 53.0% | 41.1% | 2.48 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-12 13:30 | FCA vs B04 | ✗ HOME | 31.8% | 23.2% | 4.36 | 2-2 | -1.00 |
| 09-12 13:30 | SCF vs BMG | ✓ HOME | 52.0% | 45.9% | 2.13 | 5-0 | +1.13 |
| 09-12 13:30 | TSG vs VFB | ✓ OVER25 | 76.5% | 65.2% | 1.44 | 2-1 | +0.44 |
| 09-12 13:30 | M05 vs SGE | ✓ AWAY | 36.0% | 31.0% | 3.28 | 1-3 | +2.28 |
| 09-11 18:30 | FCU vs S04 | ✗ HOME | 49.3% | 46.4% | 2.15 | 1-3 | -1.00 |
| 09-06 15:30 | SGE vs FCA | ✓ OVER25 | 74.3% | 64.1% | 1.47 | 1-4 | +0.47 |
| 09-06 13:30 | HSV vs M05 | ✗ UNDER25 | 49.8% | 43.1% | 2.27 | 0-5 | -1.00 |
| 09-05 13:30 | SCP vs SCF | ✗ OVER25 | 65.3% | 56.9% | 1.73 | 0-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-05 13:30 | SVW vs RBL | ✗ AWAY | 51.2% | 46.1% | 2.13 | 3-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-05 13:30 | B04 vs FCU | ✓ OVER25 | 71.6% | 65.0% | 1.47 | 4-0 | +0.47 |
| 09-05 13:30 | TSG vs BVB | ✓ AWAY | 43.3% | 38.7% | 2.55 | 2-3 | +1.55 |
| 09-05 13:30 | BMG vs ELV | ✓ AWAY | 29.8% | 20.9% | 5.10 | 3-4 | +4.10 |
| 09-04 18:30 | VFB vs KOE | ✓ OVER25 | 77.1% | 69.3% | 1.37 | 4-1 | +0.37 |
| 08-30 15:30 | FCA vs S04 | ✓ HOME | 47.4% | 44.0% | 2.25 | 3-0 | +1.25 |
| 08-30 13:30 | SCF vs SVW | ✓ HOME | 52.8% | 49.0% | 2.01 | 4-0 | +1.01 |
| 08-30 13:30 | SCF vs SVW | ✗ AWAY | 24.9% | 22.4% | 4.70 | 4-0 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 16:30 | BVB vs HSV | ✗ DRAW | 18.7% | 16.5% | 6.00 | 2-0 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 16:30 | BVB vs HSV | ✗ AWAY | 15.7% | 11.0% | 10.00 | 2-0 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 13:30 | FCU vs SGE | ✗ HOME | 40.8% | 36.6% | 2.74 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 13:30 | RBL vs BMG | ✗ AWAY | 20.4% | 18.1% | 5.80 | 1-0 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 13:30 | ELV vs B04 | ✓ HOME | 26.8% | 18.9% | 5.40 | 3-2 | +4.40 |
| 08-29 13:30 | KOE vs TSG | ✓ HOME | 34.4% | 32.7% | 3.10 | 3-2 | +2.10 |
| 08-29 13:30 | M05 vs SCP | ✗ AWAY | 26.1% | 19.6% | 5.20 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 13:30 | M05 vs SCP | ✓ DRAW | 22.4% | 21.0% | 4.90 | 0-0 | +3.90 |
| 08-28 18:30 | BAY vs VFB | ✗ DRAW | 16.6% | 12.7% | 8.20 | 5-1 | -1.00 |
| 08-28 18:30 | BAY vs VFB | ✗ AWAY | 17.4% | 9.1% | 12.50 | 5-1 | -1.00 |
How to read this
A sustained positive ROI over a large sample would mean the model sees something the market misprices — that pattern (not individual picks) is the asset. A negative ROI means the market is better informed than the model, and each divergence is a measure of what the model is missing (team news, lineups, money flow). Either result is valuable; only the sample size makes it trustworthy.
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Paste this block into chat for analysis (summary, O/U board, open + settled).
# Edge Tracker — Bundesliga (2026-10-27 04:58 UTC) ## Summary - Open: **0** - Settled: **54** (wins 22/54) - Staked: **54.0** u · P&L **+7.53** u · ROI **+13.9%** - O/U 2.5 settled: **18** · P&L **-2.32** · ROI **-12.9%** - Rule: EV≥5% · 1X2 p≥28% · O/U p≥20% · max 1 position/match · flat 1u paper ## Upcoming O/U 2.5 board | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | Qualifies | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | none | ## Open positions | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | — | — | — | — | — | — | none | ## Settled positions | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | Score | Won | P&L | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---:| | 2026-10-25T16:30 | freiburg vs bayern | UNDER 2.5 | 26.5% | 23.8% | 4.00 | 1-3 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-25T14:30 | hoffenheim vs leverkusen | OVER 2.5 | 78.1% | 70.3% | 1.35 | 3-0 | Y | +0.35 | | 2026-10-24T16:30 | dortmund vs frankfurt | OVER 2.5 | 79.1% | 71.0% | 1.33 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-24T13:30 | paderborn vs hamburg | UNDER 2.5 | 44.3% | 35.5% | 2.62 | 1-0 | Y | +1.62 | | 2026-10-24T13:30 | mainz vs bremen | AWAY | 28.8% | 22.2% | 4.67 | 2-3 | Y | +3.67 | | 2026-10-24T13:30 | augsburg vs union-berlin | HOME | 55.3% | 52.2% | 1.96 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-24T13:30 | koln vs schalke | AWAY | 29.9% | 27.9% | 3.70 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-18T15:30 | gladbach vs hoffenheim | HOME | 32.1% | 28.4% | 3.58 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-18T13:30 | leverkusen vs freiburg | OVER 2.5 | 74.1% | 64.5% | 1.44 | 2-1 | Y | +0.44 | | 2026-10-17T16:30 | bayern vs leipzig | UNDER 2.5 | 23.4% | 19.0% | 5.00 | 6-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-17T13:30 | elversberg vs augsburg | AWAY | 38.7% | 36.0% | 2.75 | 4-3 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-17T13:30 | schalke vs mainz | HOME | 39.2% | 32.9% | 3.05 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-17T13:30 | bremen vs paderborn | AWAY | 28.2% | 23.4% | 4.21 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-17T13:30 | union-berlin vs dortmund | AWAY | 61.3% | 57.8% | 1.73 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-17T13:30 | hamburg vs stuttgart | UNDER 2.5 | 37.5% | 31.9% | 2.90 | 1-0 | Y | +1.90 | | 2026-10-16T00:00 | frankfurt vs koln | OVER 2.5 | 79.0% | 67.4% | 1.40 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-11T13:30 | koln vs gladbach | AWAY | 28.1% | 26.5% | 3.85 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-09T00:00 | dortmund vs bremen | UNDER 2.5 | 39.1% | 31.2% | 3.00 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-20T17:30 | paderborn vs hoffenheim | HOME | 29.8% | 21.2% | 4.75 | 3-1 | Y | +3.75 | | 2026-09-20T15:30 | schalke vs elversberg | AWAY | 33.5% | 22.1% | 4.47 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-20T13:30 | leverkusen vs leipzig | AWAY | 30.4% | 26.5% | 3.72 | 2-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-19T16:30 | stuttgart vs dortmund | AWAY | 41.2% | 33.3% | 3.06 | 0-1 | Y | +2.06 | | 2026-09-19T13:30 | bremen vs augsburg | AWAY | 39.1% | 32.6% | 3.10 | 3-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-19T13:30 | hamburg vs koln | HOME | 40.9% | 37.4% | 2.65 | 2-1 | Y | +1.65 | | 2026-09-19T13:30 | frankfurt vs freiburg | OVER 2.5 | 75.6% | 58.7% | 1.62 | 2-2 | Y | +0.62 | | 2026-09-19T13:30 | gladbach vs mainz | UNDER 2.5 | 45.0% | 39.8% | 2.38 | 3-4 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-13T13:30 | leipzig vs hamburg | UNDER 2.5 | 33.7% | 27.1% | 3.50 | 5-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-12T16:30 | koln vs bremen | HOME | 53.0% | 41.1% | 2.48 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-12T13:30 | augsburg vs leverkusen | HOME | 31.8% | 23.2% | 4.36 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-12T13:30 | freiburg vs gladbach | HOME | 52.0% | 45.9% | 2.13 | 5-0 | Y | +1.13 | | 2026-09-12T13:30 | hoffenheim vs stuttgart | OVER 2.5 | 76.5% | 65.2% | 1.44 | 2-1 | Y | +0.44 | | 2026-09-12T13:30 | mainz vs frankfurt | AWAY | 36.0% | 31.0% | 3.28 | 1-3 | Y | +2.28 | | 2026-09-11T18:30 | union-berlin vs schalke | HOME | 49.3% | 46.4% | 2.15 | 1-3 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-06T15:30 | frankfurt vs augsburg | OVER 2.5 | 74.3% | 64.1% | 1.47 | 1-4 | Y | +0.47 | | 2026-09-06T13:30 | hamburg vs mainz | UNDER 2.5 | 49.8% | 43.1% | 2.27 | 0-5 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-05T13:30 | paderborn vs freiburg | OVER 2.5 | 65.3% | 56.9% | 1.73 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-05T13:30 | bremen vs leipzig | AWAY | 51.2% | 46.1% | 2.13 | 3-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-05T13:30 | leverkusen vs union-berlin | OVER 2.5 | 71.6% | 65.0% | 1.47 | 4-0 | Y | +0.47 | | 2026-09-05T13:30 | hoffenheim vs dortmund | AWAY | 43.3% | 38.7% | 2.55 | 2-3 | Y | +1.55 | | 2026-09-05T13:30 | gladbach vs elversberg | AWAY | 29.8% | 20.9% | 5.10 | 3-4 | Y | +4.10 | | 2026-09-04T18:30 | stuttgart vs koln | OVER 2.5 | 77.1% | 69.3% | 1.37 | 4-1 | Y | +0.37 | | 2026-08-30T15:30 | augsburg vs schalke | HOME | 47.4% | 44.0% | 2.25 | 3-0 | Y | +1.25 | | 2026-08-30T13:30 | freiburg vs bremen | HOME | 52.8% | 49.0% | 2.01 | 4-0 | Y | +1.01 | | 2026-08-30T13:30 | freiburg vs bremen | AWAY | 24.9% | 22.4% | 4.70 | 4-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T16:30 | dortmund vs hamburg | DRAW | 18.7% | 16.5% | 6.00 | 2-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T16:30 | dortmund vs hamburg | AWAY | 15.7% | 11.0% | 10.00 | 2-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T13:30 | union-berlin vs frankfurt | HOME | 40.8% | 36.6% | 2.74 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T13:30 | leipzig vs gladbach | AWAY | 20.4% | 18.1% | 5.80 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T13:30 | elversberg vs leverkusen | HOME | 26.8% | 18.9% | 5.40 | 3-2 | Y | +4.40 | | 2026-08-29T13:30 | koln vs hoffenheim | HOME | 34.4% | 32.7% | 3.10 | 3-2 | Y | +2.10 | | 2026-08-29T13:30 | mainz vs paderborn | AWAY | 26.1% | 19.6% | 5.20 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T13:30 | mainz vs paderborn | DRAW | 22.4% | 21.0% | 4.90 | 0-0 | Y | +3.90 | | 2026-08-28T18:30 | bayern vs stuttgart | DRAW | 16.6% | 12.7% | 8.20 | 5-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-28T18:30 | bayern vs stuttgart | AWAY | 17.4% | 9.1% | 12.50 | 5-1 | N | -1.00 | _Paper positions only — not betting advice. ROI is noise below ~200 settled._