Serie A Power Ratings
Two-dimensional team strength (attack / defense) fitted on xG process data, converted to match probabilities through a Dixon-Coles engine. Live: preseason baseline corrected by 10 played matches — see gameweek predictions.
Match Predictor
| # | Team | Power | Δ season | Attack | Defense | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INT Inter Milan | 74.7 | ▲ 0.7 | 85% | ||
| 2 | ROM Roma | 67.2 | ▲ 2.2 | 82% | ||
| 3 | NAP Napoli | 65.6 | ▲ 1.1 | 82% | ||
| 4 | COM Como | 65.2 | ▼ 0.3 | 73% | ||
| 5 | JUV Juventus | 62.6 | ▲ 0.1 | 80% | ||
| 6 | MIL AC Milan | 61.3 | ▲ 0.3 | 80% | ||
| 7 | ATA Atalanta | 59.2 | ▲ 0.2 | 78% | ||
| 8 | BOL Bologna | 53.0 | ▼ 1.0 | 78% | ||
| 9 | LAZ Lazio | 52.5 | ▲ 1.0 | 78% | ||
| 10 | UDI Udinese | 50.3 | ▲ 0.3 | 75% | ||
| 11 | SAS Sassuolo | 48.3 | ▼ 0.2 | 75% | ||
| 12 | CAG Cagliari | 45.4 | ▲ 0.9 | 75% | ||
| 13 | GEN Genoa | 43.9 | ▼ 1.1 | 75% | ||
| 14 | FIO Fiorentina | 43.3 | ▼ 2.2 | 75% | ||
| 15 | TOR Torino | 42.2 | ▼ 0.3 | 75% | ||
| 16 | PAR Parma | 41.6 | ▼ 0.9 | 75% | ||
| 17 | LEC Lecce | 41.1 | ▲ 1.6 | 75% | ||
| 18 | MON Monza | 36.8 | ▼ 0.7 | 59% | ||
| 19 | VEN Venezia | 35.9 | ▼ 1.6 | 56% | ||
| 20 | FRO Frosinone | 34.9 | ▼ 0.1 | 56% |
Scale: 50 = league average; each point ≈ 1.5% multiplicative change in expected goal output. Power = (Attack + Defense) / 2, display only — predictions always use the two underlying parameters. Δ season = movement vs the preseason baseline from played matches (surprise vs model expectation, capped per match — one result is mostly variance). Promoted clubs start with low confidence; it rises with sample.