Serie A Power Ratings

Two-dimensional team strength (attack / defense) fitted on xG process data, converted to match probabilities through a Dixon-Coles engine. Live: preseason baseline corrected by 80 played matches — see gameweek predictions.

Match Predictor

#	Team	Power	Δ season	Attack	Defense	Confidence
1	INT Inter Milan	76.2	▲ 2.2	86	65	87%
2	ROM Roma	71.0	▲ 6.0	71	70	85%
3	COM Como	67.0	▲ 1.5	66	67	78%
4	MIL AC Milan	64.7	▲ 3.7	64	64	84%
5	NAP Napoli	63.8	▼ 0.7	63	63	85%
6	JUV Juventus	61.6	▼ 0.9	59	63	84%
7	LAZ Lazio	58.4	▲ 6.9	54	62	82%
8	ATA Atalanta	56.6	▼ 2.4	60	52	82%
9	BOL Bologna	52.8	▼ 1.2	50	54	82%
10	SAS Sassuolo	46.9	▼ 1.6	51	41	80%
11	TOR Torino	45.9	▲ 3.4	50	41	80%
12	UDI Udinese	44.0	▼ 6.0	46	40	80%
13	CAG Cagliari	43.8	▼ 0.7	38	48	80%
14	GEN Genoa	41.4	▼ 3.6	38	44	80%
15	FIO Fiorentina	41.3	▼ 4.2	42	39	80%
16	FRO Frosinone	41.2	▲ 6.2	44	38	67%
17	MON Monza	39.0	▲ 1.5	45	32	69%
18	LEC Lecce	38.5	▼ 1.0	33	43	80%
19	PAR Parma	38.0	▼ 4.5	27	48	80%
20	VEN Venezia	33.0	▼ 4.5	31	34	67%

Scale: 50 = league average; each point ≈ 1.5% multiplicative change in expected goal output. Power = (Attack + Defense) / 2, display only — predictions always use the two underlying parameters. Δ season = movement vs the preseason baseline from played matches (surprise vs model expectation, capped per match — one result is mostly variance). Promoted clubs start with low confidence; it rises with sample.