EDGERATING
Methodology

Edge Tracker

Whenever the model's probability beats the best market price by 5%+ expected value, a flat 1-unit paper position is opened and later settled against the real result. This measures one thing only: does model–market divergence carry signal, or does the market simply know more? No real money, no recommendations.

Ledger Summary

Open positions
4
Settled
74
Hit rate
28/74
Units staked
74.0
P&L (units)
+3.97
ROI
+5.4%
O/U 2.5 settled
23
O/U 2.5 ROI
-5.8%

Entry rule: model probability × best price − 1 ≥ 5%; 1X2 model p ≥ 28%; O/U 2.5 model p ≥ 20%. At most one paper position per match (highest EV among qualifiers — no stacking 1X2 + Over). Locked at first open. Below ~200 settled positions the ROI is statistically meaningless — collect first, conclude later.

Upcoming O/U 2.5 board

No Over/Under 2.5 quotes in the latest snapshot (books may not list the 2.5 line yet, or the next odds refresh is pending).

Open Positions

Kickoff (UTC)MatchPosition ModelMarketPriceEV
09-12 00:00 SAS vs JUV HOME 30.9% 17.4% 5.93 +83.3%
09-13 00:00 COM vs PAR UNDER25 52.9% 48.0% 2.03 +7.4%
09-13 00:00 TOR vs ROM OVER25 58.8% 42.9% 2.25 +32.2%
09-13 00:00 LAZ vs MIL HOME 34.6% 25.8% 3.90 +35.1%

Settled Positions

Kickoff (UTC)MatchPosition ModelMarketPriceScoreP&L
10-25 19:45 UDI vs MIL ✗ HOME 31.0% 21.9% 4.74 0-2 -1.00
10-25 14:00 GEN vs VEN ✓ HOME 50.4% 44.9% 2.18 1-0 +1.18
10-25 14:00 ATA vs FRO ✗ UNDER25 49.6% 34.8% 2.70 4-4 -1.00
10-25 11:30 INT vs FIO ✓ HOME 76.5% 69.3% 1.41 2-1 +0.41
10-24 18:45 LAZ vs PAR ✗ UNDER25 60.8% 54.2% 1.76 2-1 -1.00
10-24 16:00 NAP vs ROM ✗ HOME 38.1% 33.9% 2.90 3-3 -1.00
10-24 13:00 CAG vs BOL ✗ HOME 38.8% 29.3% 3.35 0-2 -1.00
10-23 18:45 TOR vs MON ✓ OVER25 59.6% 46.7% 2.04 3-2 +1.04
10-19 18:45 PAR vs TOR ✗ HOME 40.8% 31.1% 3.25 1-3 -1.00
10-19 16:30 MON vs CAG ✗ AWAY 39.9% 25.7% 3.90 4-0 -1.00
10-18 16:00 MIL vs ATA ✗ UNDER25 50.1% 44.7% 2.10 3-2 -1.00
10-18 13:00 FIO vs COM ✓ AWAY 52.0% 45.8% 2.13 1-3 +1.13
10-18 10:30 UDI vs LEC ✓ OVER25 52.2% 46.8% 2.05 0-3 +1.05
10-17 18:45 ROM vs GEN ✓ HOME 67.7% 61.9% 1.61 2-0 +0.61
10-17 16:00 BOL vs INT ✓ AWAY 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 1-3 +1.00
10-17 13:00 VEN vs NAP ✗ AWAY 59.3% 55.8% 1.81 1-0 -1.00
10-16 18:45 FRO vs SAS ✗ AWAY 38.0% 34.0% 2.96 4-2 -1.00
10-12 18:45 TOR vs UDI ✗ AWAY 38.6% 31.2% 3.10 2-1 -1.00
10-12 16:30 ATA vs VEN ✓ HOME 62.8% 55.7% 1.77 3-1 +0.77
10-11 18:45 CAG vs JUV ✗ HOME 30.4% 17.5% 6.07 1-1 -1.00
10-11 16:00 SAS vs MIL ✗ HOME 33.1% 23.2% 4.25 1-1 -1.00
10-11 13:00 LAZ vs MON ✓ OVER25 53.4% 47.9% 1.97 3-1 +0.97
10-11 13:00 LEC vs BOL ✗ HOME 31.6% 26.5% 3.75 1-2 -1.00
10-11 10:30 COM vs ROM ✗ HOME 40.7% 38.0% 2.62 0-0 -1.00
10-10 18:45 NAP vs FRO ✗ UNDER25 46.7% 37.5% 2.50 3-0 -1.00
10-10 16:00 INT vs PAR ✗ UNDER25 38.2% 30.5% 3.10 3-0 -1.00
10-10 13:00 GEN vs FIO ✓ HOME 43.3% 33.3% 2.90 2-1 +1.90
09-20 18:45 MIL vs LEC ✗ UNDER25 48.9% 42.9% 2.20 3-0 -1.00
09-20 16:00 JUV vs ATA ✗ AWAY 28.3% 19.2% 5.73 2-0 -1.00
09-20 13:00 PAR vs GEN ✓ HOME 40.1% 32.1% 3.13 2-1 +2.13
09-20 13:00 FRO vs COM ✓ UNDER25 44.9% 38.0% 2.45 2-0 +1.45
09-20 10:30 FIO vs NAP ✗ AWAY 52.8% 42.9% 2.28 1-1 -1.00
09-19 18:45 VEN vs LAZ ✓ AWAY 44.2% 31.6% 3.10 0-2 +2.10
09-19 16:00 ROM vs INT ✗ HOME 39.4% 37.6% 2.88 2-2 -1.00
09-19 13:00 BOL vs TOR ✗ OVER25 57.4% 48.2% 1.97 1-1 -1.00
09-19 13:00 UDI vs CAG ✗ OVER25 50.6% 42.9% 2.20 0-1 -1.00
09-18 18:45 MON vs SAS ✓ HOME 33.5% 31.8% 3.20 2-1 +2.20
09-14 18:45 INT vs UDI ✓ OVER25 64.7% 57.1% 1.73 5-3 +0.73
09-14 16:30 COM vs PAR ✗ UNDER25 50.6% 44.3% 2.10 2-1 -1.00
09-14 16:30 TOR vs ROM ✗ OVER25 60.6% 44.7% 2.10 0-2 -1.00
09-13 18:45 SAS vs JUV ✓ HOME 30.9% 17.4% 6.20 3-2 +5.20
09-13 16:00 NAP vs BOL ✗ OVER25 52.9% 47.4% 2.12 1-0 -1.00
09-13 13:00 LEC vs MON ✓ OVER25 46.1% 43.1% 2.31 3-2 +1.31
09-12 18:45 ATA vs CAG ✗ UNDER25 57.3% 50.0% 1.95 1-2 -1.00
09-12 16:00 LAZ vs MIL ✗ HOME 34.6% 28.7% 3.35 2-2 -1.00
09-12 13:00 GEN vs FRO ✗ OVER25 46.1% 43.1% 2.29 1-1 -1.00
09-11 18:45 VEN vs FIO ✗ HOME 38.4% 34.9% 2.78 2-4 -1.00
09-07 18:45 UDI vs LAZ ✓ OVER25 46.1% 39.3% 2.54 1-2 +1.54
09-07 16:00 CAG vs LEC ✗ AWAY 28.1% 26.4% 3.95 1-0 -1.00
09-06 18:45 JUV vs MIL ✗ AWAY 30.4% 25.7% 3.99 1-1 -1.00
09-06 16:00 BOL vs SAS ✗ AWAY 28.1% 23.5% 4.20 2-2 -1.00
09-06 13:00 PAR vs MON ✗ HOME 45.5% 44.9% 2.34 1-1 -1.00
09-06 13:00 FRO vs VEN ✓ HOME 41.2% 34.0% 2.91 3-2 +1.91
09-05 18:45 ROM vs ATA ✓ OVER25 52.0% 48.0% 2.06 2-1 +1.06
09-05 16:00 INT vs NAP ✓ OVER25 58.2% 44.6% 2.14 3-2 +1.14
09-05 13:00 FIO vs TOR ✓ AWAY 30.9% 21.6% 5.03 1-2 +4.03
09-04 18:45 GEN vs COM ✓ OVER25 51.0% 42.1% 2.37 1-4 +1.37
08-31 18:45 ATA vs BOL ✓ HOME 48.1% 18.5% 5.90 1-0 +4.90
08-30 18:45 CAG vs INT ✗ HOME 20.8% 12.4% 8.40 0-1 -1.00
08-30 18:45 LAZ vs GEN ✗ AWAY 25.3% 22.1% 4.70 1-0 -1.00
08-30 18:45 LAZ vs GEN ✓ HOME 48.9% 46.5% 2.16 1-0 +1.16
08-30 18:45 CAG vs INT ✗ DRAW 21.1% 20.0% 5.00 0-1 -1.00
08-30 16:30 NAP vs COM ✗ HOME 43.1% 38.6% 2.64 1-2 -1.00
08-29 18:45 JUV vs PAR ✗ DRAW 24.3% 14.5% 6.85 1-0 -1.00
08-29 18:45 JUV vs PAR ✗ AWAY 18.3% 7.0% 16.00 1-0 -1.00
08-29 16:30 FIO vs FRO ✗ DRAW 25.5% 23.3% 4.29 0-3 -1.00
08-29 16:30 FIO vs FRO ✓ AWAY 25.9% 18.0% 5.80 0-3 +4.80
08-29 16:30 MON vs UDI ✗ HOME 32.6% 30.3% 3.35 2-3 -1.00
08-29 16:30 SAS vs TOR ✓ HOME 49.1% 42.0% 2.36 2-1 +1.36
08-29 16:30 MON vs UDI ✓ AWAY 41.7% 40.1% 2.52 2-3 +1.52
08-29 16:30 FIO vs FRO ✗ HOME 48.6% 11.3% 9.80 0-3 -1.00
08-29 16:30 MON vs UDI ✗ DRAW 25.7% 11.0% 10.00 2-3 -1.00
08-29 16:30 SAS vs TOR ✗ AWAY 27.2% 26.5% 10.69 2-1 -1.00
08-28 18:45 MIL vs VEN ✗ AWAY 16.8% 13.8% 7.75 2-0 -1.00

How to read this

A sustained positive ROI over a large sample would mean the model sees something the market misprices — that pattern (not individual picks) is the asset. A negative ROI means the market is better informed than the model, and each divergence is a measure of what the model is missing (team news, lineups, money flow). Either result is valuable; only the sample size makes it trustworthy.

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Paste this block into chat for analysis (summary, O/U board, open + settled).

# Edge Tracker — Serie A (2026-10-27 04:58 UTC)

## Summary

- Open: **4**
- Settled: **74** (wins 28/74)
- Staked: **74.0** u · P&L **+3.97** u · ROI **+5.4%**
- O/U 2.5 settled: **23** · P&L **-1.34** · ROI **-5.8%**
- Rule: EV≥5% · 1X2 p≥28% · O/U p≥20% · max 1 position/match · flat 1u paper

## Upcoming O/U 2.5 board

| Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | none |

## Open positions

| Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2026-09-12T00:00 | sassuolo vs juventus | HOME | 30.9% | 17.4% | 5.93 | +83.3% |
| 2026-09-13T00:00 | como vs parma | UNDER 2.5 | 52.9% | 48.0% | 2.03 | +7.4% |
| 2026-09-13T00:00 | torino vs roma | OVER 2.5 | 58.8% | 42.9% | 2.25 | +32.2% |
| 2026-09-13T00:00 | lazio vs milan | HOME | 34.6% | 25.8% | 3.90 | +35.1% |

## Settled positions

| Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | Score | Won | P&L |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---:|
| 2026-10-25T19:45 | udinese vs milan | HOME | 31.0% | 21.9% | 4.74 | 0-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-25T14:00 | genoa vs venezia | HOME | 50.4% | 44.9% | 2.18 | 1-0 | Y | +1.18 |
| 2026-10-25T14:00 | atalanta vs frosinone | UNDER 2.5 | 49.6% | 34.8% | 2.70 | 4-4 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-25T11:30 | inter vs fiorentina | HOME | 76.5% | 69.3% | 1.41 | 2-1 | Y | +0.41 |
| 2026-10-24T18:45 | lazio vs parma | UNDER 2.5 | 60.8% | 54.2% | 1.76 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-24T16:00 | napoli vs roma | HOME | 38.1% | 33.9% | 2.90 | 3-3 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-24T13:00 | cagliari vs bologna | HOME | 38.8% | 29.3% | 3.35 | 0-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-23T18:45 | torino vs monza | OVER 2.5 | 59.6% | 46.7% | 2.04 | 3-2 | Y | +1.04 |
| 2026-10-19T18:45 | parma vs torino | HOME | 40.8% | 31.1% | 3.25 | 1-3 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-19T16:30 | monza vs cagliari | AWAY | 39.9% | 25.7% | 3.90 | 4-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-18T16:00 | milan vs atalanta | UNDER 2.5 | 50.1% | 44.7% | 2.10 | 3-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-18T13:00 | fiorentina vs como | AWAY | 52.0% | 45.8% | 2.13 | 1-3 | Y | +1.13 |
| 2026-10-18T10:30 | udinese vs lecce | OVER 2.5 | 52.2% | 46.8% | 2.05 | 0-3 | Y | +1.05 |
| 2026-10-17T18:45 | roma vs genoa | HOME | 67.7% | 61.9% | 1.61 | 2-0 | Y | +0.61 |
| 2026-10-17T16:00 | bologna vs inter | AWAY | 54.6% | 50.0% | 2.00 | 1-3 | Y | +1.00 |
| 2026-10-17T13:00 | venezia vs napoli | AWAY | 59.3% | 55.8% | 1.81 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-16T18:45 | frosinone vs sassuolo | AWAY | 38.0% | 34.0% | 2.96 | 4-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-12T18:45 | torino vs udinese | AWAY | 38.6% | 31.2% | 3.10 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-12T16:30 | atalanta vs venezia | HOME | 62.8% | 55.7% | 1.77 | 3-1 | Y | +0.77 |
| 2026-10-11T18:45 | cagliari vs juventus | HOME | 30.4% | 17.5% | 6.07 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-11T16:00 | sassuolo vs milan | HOME | 33.1% | 23.2% | 4.25 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-11T13:00 | lazio vs monza | OVER 2.5 | 53.4% | 47.9% | 1.97 | 3-1 | Y | +0.97 |
| 2026-10-11T13:00 | lecce vs bologna | HOME | 31.6% | 26.5% | 3.75 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-11T10:30 | como vs roma | HOME | 40.7% | 38.0% | 2.62 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-10T18:45 | napoli vs frosinone | UNDER 2.5 | 46.7% | 37.5% | 2.50 | 3-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-10T16:00 | inter vs parma | UNDER 2.5 | 38.2% | 30.5% | 3.10 | 3-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-10T13:00 | genoa vs fiorentina | HOME | 43.3% | 33.3% | 2.90 | 2-1 | Y | +1.90 |
| 2026-09-20T18:45 | milan vs lecce | UNDER 2.5 | 48.9% | 42.9% | 2.20 | 3-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-20T16:00 | juventus vs atalanta | AWAY | 28.3% | 19.2% | 5.73 | 2-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-20T13:00 | parma vs genoa | HOME | 40.1% | 32.1% | 3.13 | 2-1 | Y | +2.13 |
| 2026-09-20T13:00 | frosinone vs como | UNDER 2.5 | 44.9% | 38.0% | 2.45 | 2-0 | Y | +1.45 |
| 2026-09-20T10:30 | fiorentina vs napoli | AWAY | 52.8% | 42.9% | 2.28 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-19T18:45 | venezia vs lazio | AWAY | 44.2% | 31.6% | 3.10 | 0-2 | Y | +2.10 |
| 2026-09-19T16:00 | roma vs inter | HOME | 39.4% | 37.6% | 2.88 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-19T13:00 | bologna vs torino | OVER 2.5 | 57.4% | 48.2% | 1.97 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-19T13:00 | udinese vs cagliari | OVER 2.5 | 50.6% | 42.9% | 2.20 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-18T18:45 | monza vs sassuolo | HOME | 33.5% | 31.8% | 3.20 | 2-1 | Y | +2.20 |
| 2026-09-14T18:45 | inter vs udinese | OVER 2.5 | 64.7% | 57.1% | 1.73 | 5-3 | Y | +0.73 |
| 2026-09-14T16:30 | como vs parma | UNDER 2.5 | 50.6% | 44.3% | 2.10 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-14T16:30 | torino vs roma | OVER 2.5 | 60.6% | 44.7% | 2.10 | 0-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-13T18:45 | sassuolo vs juventus | HOME | 30.9% | 17.4% | 6.20 | 3-2 | Y | +5.20 |
| 2026-09-13T16:00 | napoli vs bologna | OVER 2.5 | 52.9% | 47.4% | 2.12 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-13T13:00 | lecce vs monza | OVER 2.5 | 46.1% | 43.1% | 2.31 | 3-2 | Y | +1.31 |
| 2026-09-12T18:45 | atalanta vs cagliari | UNDER 2.5 | 57.3% | 50.0% | 1.95 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-12T16:00 | lazio vs milan | HOME | 34.6% | 28.7% | 3.35 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-12T13:00 | genoa vs frosinone | OVER 2.5 | 46.1% | 43.1% | 2.29 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-11T18:45 | venezia vs fiorentina | HOME | 38.4% | 34.9% | 2.78 | 2-4 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-07T18:45 | udinese vs lazio | OVER 2.5 | 46.1% | 39.3% | 2.54 | 1-2 | Y | +1.54 |
| 2026-09-07T16:00 | cagliari vs lecce | AWAY | 28.1% | 26.4% | 3.95 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-06T18:45 | juventus vs milan | AWAY | 30.4% | 25.7% | 3.99 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-06T16:00 | bologna vs sassuolo | AWAY | 28.1% | 23.5% | 4.20 | 2-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-06T13:00 | parma vs monza | HOME | 45.5% | 44.9% | 2.34 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-09-06T13:00 | frosinone vs venezia | HOME | 41.2% | 34.0% | 2.91 | 3-2 | Y | +1.91 |
| 2026-09-05T18:45 | roma vs atalanta | OVER 2.5 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 2.06 | 2-1 | Y | +1.06 |
| 2026-09-05T16:00 | inter vs napoli | OVER 2.5 | 58.2% | 44.6% | 2.14 | 3-2 | Y | +1.14 |
| 2026-09-05T13:00 | fiorentina vs torino | AWAY | 30.9% | 21.6% | 5.03 | 1-2 | Y | +4.03 |
| 2026-09-04T18:45 | genoa vs como | OVER 2.5 | 51.0% | 42.1% | 2.37 | 1-4 | Y | +1.37 |
| 2026-08-31T18:45 | atalanta vs bologna | HOME | 48.1% | 18.5% | 5.90 | 1-0 | Y | +4.90 |
| 2026-08-30T18:45 | cagliari vs inter | HOME | 20.8% | 12.4% | 8.40 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-30T18:45 | lazio vs genoa | AWAY | 25.3% | 22.1% | 4.70 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-30T18:45 | lazio vs genoa | HOME | 48.9% | 46.5% | 2.16 | 1-0 | Y | +1.16 |
| 2026-08-30T18:45 | cagliari vs inter | DRAW | 21.1% | 20.0% | 5.00 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-30T16:30 | napoli vs como | HOME | 43.1% | 38.6% | 2.64 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-29T18:45 | juventus vs parma | DRAW | 24.3% | 14.5% | 6.85 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-29T18:45 | juventus vs parma | AWAY | 18.3% | 7.0% | 16.00 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-29T16:30 | fiorentina vs frosinone | DRAW | 25.5% | 23.3% | 4.29 | 0-3 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-29T16:30 | fiorentina vs frosinone | AWAY | 25.9% | 18.0% | 5.80 | 0-3 | Y | +4.80 |
| 2026-08-29T16:30 | monza vs udinese | HOME | 32.6% | 30.3% | 3.35 | 2-3 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-29T16:30 | sassuolo vs torino | HOME | 49.1% | 42.0% | 2.36 | 2-1 | Y | +1.36 |
| 2026-08-29T16:30 | monza vs udinese | AWAY | 41.7% | 40.1% | 2.52 | 2-3 | Y | +1.52 |
| 2026-08-29T16:30 | fiorentina vs frosinone | HOME | 48.6% | 11.3% | 9.80 | 0-3 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-29T16:30 | monza vs udinese | DRAW | 25.7% | 11.0% | 10.00 | 2-3 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-29T16:30 | sassuolo vs torino | AWAY | 27.2% | 26.5% | 10.69 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-28T18:45 | milan vs venezia | AWAY | 16.8% | 13.8% | 7.75 | 2-0 | N | -1.00 |

_Paper positions only — not betting advice. ROI is noise below ~200 settled._