La Liga Power Ratings
Two-dimensional team strength (attack / defense) fitted on xG process data, converted to match probabilities through a Dixon-Coles engine. Live: preseason baseline corrected by 99 played matches — see gameweek predictions.
Match Predictor
| # | Team | Power | Δ season | Attack | Defense | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FCB Barcelona | 82.9 | ▲ 7.4 | 89% | ||
| 2 | RMA Real Madrid | 74.2 | ▲ 4.7 | 87% | ||
| 3 | ATM Atlético Madrid | 64.6 | ▲ 4.6 | 86% | ||
| 4 | VIL Villarreal | 58.8 | ▼ 3.2 | 84% | ||
| 5 | BET Real Betis | 57.1 | ▲ 1.1 | 84% | ||
| 6 | CEL Celta Vigo | 52.5 | ▼ 0.5 | 83% | ||
| 7 | RSO Real Sociedad | 49.4 | ▲ 0.4 | 82% | ||
| 8 | ATH Athletic Club | 47.4 | ▲ 3.9 | 81% | ||
| 9 | ELC Elche | 47.4 | ▲ 1.4 | 81% | ||
| 10 | SEV Sevilla | 46.9 | ▲ 2.4 | 82% | ||
| 11 | ALA Alavés | 45.9 | ▲ 1.4 | 82% | ||
| 12 | LEV Levante | 44.0 | · | 81% | ||
| 13 | RAY Rayo Vallecano | 43.9 | ▼ 4.6 | 83% | ||
| 14 | ESP Espanyol | 43.5 | ▼ 1.0 | 82% | ||
| 15 | OSA Osasuna | 41.5 | ▼ 5.5 | 82% | ||
| 16 | VAL Valencia | 41.1 | ▼ 5.4 | 82% | ||
| 17 | GET Getafe | 41.0 | ▼ 6.0 | 83% | ||
| 18 | DEP Deportivo La Coruña | 40.3 | ▲ 3.3 | 69% | ||
| 19 | RAC Racing Santander | 35.3 | ▼ 2.7 | 69% | ||
| 20 | MLG Málaga | 31.9 | ▼ 3.1 | 68% |
Scale: 50 = league average; each point ≈ 1.5% multiplicative change in expected goal output. Power = (Attack + Defense) / 2, display only — predictions always use the two underlying parameters. Δ season = movement vs the preseason baseline from played matches (surprise vs model expectation, capped per match — one result is mostly variance). Promoted clubs start with low confidence; it rises with sample.