La Liga Power Ratings

Two-dimensional team strength (attack / defense) fitted on xG process data, converted to match probabilities through a Dixon-Coles engine. Live: preseason baseline corrected by 20 played matches — see gameweek predictions.

Match Predictor

#	Team	Power	Δ season	Attack	Defense	Confidence
1	FCB Barcelona	78.2	▲ 2.7	83	72	88%
2	RMA Real Madrid	70.9	▲ 1.4	73	68	85%
3	VIL Villarreal	61.5	▼ 0.5	67	55	81%
4	ATM Atlético Madrid	60.3	▲ 0.3	59	61	82%
5	BET Real Betis	56.9	▲ 0.9	54	59	81%
6	CEL Celta Vigo	51.9	▼ 1.1	49	54	79%
7	OSA Osasuna	47.8	▲ 0.8	40	54	77%
8	RAY Rayo Vallecano	47.6	▼ 0.9	38	57	79%
9	RSO Real Sociedad	47.5	▼ 1.5	53	41	77%
10	ALA Alavés	46.9	▲ 2.4	44	49	77%
11	SEV Sevilla	46.8	▲ 2.3	48	45	77%
12	ESP Espanyol	46.3	▲ 1.8	42	49	77%
13	VAL Valencia	45.9	▼ 0.6	40	50	77%
14	GET Getafe	45.3	▼ 1.7	28	61	79%
15	ELC Elche	43.1	▼ 2.9	44	41	76%
16	LEV Levante	42.3	▼ 1.7	41	43	76%
17	ATH Athletic Club	42.0	▼ 1.5	39	44	77%
18	RAC Racing Santander	38.2	▲ 0.2	37	38	58%
19	DEP Deportivo La Coruña	37.2	▲ 0.2	34	39	58%
20	MLG Málaga	34.4	▼ 0.6	31	36	55%

Scale: 50 = league average; each point ≈ 1.5% multiplicative change in expected goal output. Power = (Attack + Defense) / 2, display only — predictions always use the two underlying parameters. Δ season = movement vs the preseason baseline from played matches (surprise vs model expectation, capped per match — one result is mostly variance). Promoted clubs start with low confidence; it rises with sample.