Edge Tracker
Whenever the model's probability beats the best market price by 5%+ expected value, a flat 1-unit paper position is opened and later settled against the real result. This measures one thing only: does model–market divergence carry signal, or does the market simply know more? No real money, no recommendations.
Ledger Summary
Open positions
7
Settled
63
Hit rate
21/63
Units staked
63.0
P&L (units)
-1.10
ROI
-1.7%
O/U 2.5 settled
25
O/U 2.5 ROI
-21.8%
Entry rule: model probability × best price − 1 ≥ 5%; 1X2 model p ≥ 28%; O/U 2.5 model p ≥ 20%. At most one paper position per match (highest EV among qualifiers — no stacking 1X2 + Over). Locked at first open. Below ~200 settled positions the ROI is statistically meaningless — collect first, conclude later.
Upcoming O/U 2.5 board
No Over/Under 2.5 quotes in the latest snapshot (books may not list the 2.5 line yet, or the next odds refresh is pending).
Open Positions
| Kickoff (UTC) | Match | Position | Model | Market | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 00:00 | ATH vs ELC | AWAY | 32.0% | 17.8% | 5.77 | +84.6% |
| 09-13 00:00 | OSA vs ESP | AWAY | 29.7% | 23.3% | 4.43 | +31.7% |
| 09-13 00:00 | RMA vs RAY | UNDER25 | 43.0% | 33.7% | 2.82 | +21.3% |
| 09-13 00:00 | SEV vs VAL | OVER25 | 54.4% | 39.6% | 2.46 | +33.7% |
| 09-13 00:00 | VIL vs BET | OVER25 | 62.5% | 57.1% | 1.71 | +6.8% |
| 09-16 19:30 | LEV vs ATH | HOME | 41.7% | 30.1% | 3.27 | +36.3% |
| 10-10 12:00 | RAY vs ATH | HOME | 43.2% | 31.5% | 3.23 | +39.4% |
Settled Positions
| Kickoff (UTC) | Match | Position | Model | Market | Price | Score | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 20:00 | SEV vs OSA | ✗ AWAY | 28.4% | 23.9% | 4.11 | 2-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-25 17:30 | RSO vs LEV | ✗ AWAY | 28.3% | 21.3% | 4.72 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-25 15:15 | CEL vs BET | ✗ AWAY | 35.1% | 31.8% | 3.10 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-25 13:00 | ATH vs GET | ✗ AWAY | 28.5% | 18.2% | 5.50 | 4-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-24 16:30 | VAL vs VIL | ✗ HOME | 29.0% | 28.0% | 3.65 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 10-24 12:00 | RAY vs ELC | ✓ AWAY | 29.9% | 21.4% | 4.78 | 0-3 | +3.78 |
| 10-21 18:00 | LEV vs ATH | ✓ HOME | 40.8% | 28.7% | 3.40 | 3-1 | +2.40 |
| 10-19 19:00 | GET vs RAY | ✗ HOME | 39.2% | 36.2% | 2.76 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-18 16:30 | MLG vs RSO | ✗ HOME | 32.3% | 29.4% | 3.30 | 2-5 | -1.00 |
| 10-18 14:15 | CEL vs ALA | ✓ HOME | 46.7% | 44.7% | 2.25 | 2-1 | +1.25 |
| 10-17 19:00 | VAL vs ATH | ✗ HOME | 39.0% | 26.7% | 3.62 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-17 16:30 | BET vs FCB | ✗ UNDER25 | 29.7% | 25.2% | 3.70 | 2-5 | -1.00 |
| 10-17 12:00 | ESP vs ATM | ✗ HOME | 29.9% | 19.3% | 5.50 | 0-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-16 19:00 | DEP vs LEV | ✗ AWAY | 33.5% | 27.1% | 3.60 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 10-12 19:00 | LEV vs SEV | ✓ OVER25 | 56.3% | 46.1% | 2.05 | 3-3 | +1.05 |
| 10-11 16:30 | BET vs OSA | ✗ UNDER25 | 48.4% | 41.9% | 2.25 | 5-2 | -1.00 |
| 10-11 14:15 | RSO vs DEP | ✓ OVER25 | 61.2% | 51.8% | 1.85 | 3-2 | +0.85 |
| 10-11 12:00 | ELC vs CEL | ✗ OVER25 | 54.9% | 46.1% | 2.05 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-10 19:00 | RMA vs VIL | ✓ UNDER25 | 30.6% | 25.2% | 3.70 | 1-0 | +2.70 |
| 10-10 16:30 | FCB vs GET | ✗ UNDER25 | 33.0% | 21.4% | 4.40 | 3-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-10 14:15 | ALA vs ATM | ✗ HOME | 30.2% | 26.5% | 3.85 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 10-09 19:00 | MLG vs ESP | ✗ AWAY | 40.8% | 33.8% | 2.92 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-20 19:00 | VAL vs RSO | ✓ OVER25 | 57.7% | 49.6% | 1.93 | 2-3 | +0.93 |
| 09-20 16:30 | DEP vs BET | ✗ AWAY | 44.4% | 37.9% | 2.66 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-20 14:15 | ATM vs RMA | ✓ HOME | 32.1% | 25.5% | 4.04 | 2-1 | +3.04 |
| 09-20 12:00 | GET vs MLG | ✓ HOME | 49.0% | 45.3% | 2.23 | 1-0 | +1.23 |
| 09-19 14:15 | ATH vs ALA | ✗ AWAY | 33.1% | 20.5% | 4.80 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-19 12:00 | OSA vs RAY | ✗ AWAY | 31.5% | 27.8% | 3.70 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-18 19:00 | ESP vs ELC | ✓ AWAY | 28.9% | 25.3% | 4.22 | 1-3 | +3.22 |
| 09-17 19:30 | MLG vs VIL | ✓ AWAY | 53.6% | 47.6% | 2.06 | 1-3 | +1.06 |
| 09-17 17:00 | BET vs GET | ✓ UNDER25 | 59.4% | 52.3% | 1.87 | 1-0 | +0.87 |
| 09-16 17:00 | DEP vs SEV | ✗ OVER25 | 59.0% | 39.8% | 2.38 | 0-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-15 19:30 | ELC vs RMA | ✗ UNDER25 | 35.2% | 31.2% | 3.00 | 2-3 | -1.00 |
| 09-15 18:00 | ALA vs VAL | ✗ OVER25 | 49.5% | 41.9% | 2.25 | 0-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-15 17:00 | RAY vs ESP | ✗ AWAY | 30.5% | 26.4% | 3.70 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-14 19:00 | VIL vs BET | ✓ AWAY | 28.5% | 25.3% | 4.00 | 1-2 | +3.00 |
| 09-13 14:15 | LEV vs FCB | ✗ UNDER25 | 27.8% | 23.8% | 3.90 | 2-4 | -1.00 |
| 09-13 00:00 | CEL vs MLG | ✗ OVER25 | 56.3% | 45.3% | 2.15 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-13 00:00 | GET vs DEP | ✗ OVER25 | 39.9% | 31.0% | 3.05 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-13 00:00 | RSO vs ATM | ✓ OVER25 | 62.9% | 54.8% | 1.77 | 0-3 | +0.77 |
| 09-12 19:00 | RMA vs RAY | ✗ UNDER25 | 41.8% | 28.3% | 3.30 | 4-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-12 16:30 | ATH vs ELC | ✗ AWAY | 30.4% | 17.2% | 5.70 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-12 14:15 | OSA vs ESP | ✓ AWAY | 29.3% | 23.7% | 4.35 | 0-2 | +3.35 |
| 09-11 19:00 | SEV vs VAL | ✗ OVER25 | 55.5% | 39.4% | 2.38 | 1-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-07 19:30 | ELC vs RSO | ✓ OVER25 | 65.9% | 50.7% | 1.97 | 2-3 | +0.97 |
| 09-07 17:00 | GET vs CEL | ✗ AWAY | 35.2% | 31.9% | 3.20 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-06 19:00 | ESP vs SEV | ✗ OVER25 | 55.9% | 38.7% | 2.54 | 1-1 | -1.00 |
| 09-06 16:30 | ALA vs OSA | ✓ OVER25 | 46.3% | 39.6% | 2.52 | 5-2 | +1.52 |
| 09-06 16:30 | MLG vs LEV | ✗ AWAY | 38.9% | 27.3% | 3.81 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-05 19:00 | VIL vs DEP | ✓ OVER25 | 65.2% | 52.6% | 1.89 | 2-3 | +0.89 |
| 09-05 14:15 | ATH vs ATM | ✗ AWAY | 48.4% | 38.8% | 2.52 | 3-0 | -1.00 |
| 09-04 19:00 | BET vs RMA | ✓ HOME | 31.8% | 24.2% | 4.12 | 1-0 | +3.12 |
| 09-03 19:00 | RSO vs CEL | ✗ OVER25 | 60.2% | 49.9% | 2.04 | 0-0 | -1.00 |
| 08-31 19:30 | FCB vs RAY | ✗ UNDER25 | 38.0% | 28.1% | 3.50 | 5-2 | -1.00 |
| 08-31 17:30 | OSA vs GET | ✗ AWAY | 28.6% | 25.2% | 4.00 | 1-0 | -1.00 |
| 08-30 19:30 | CEL vs ATH | ✗ OVER25 | 53.6% | 31.9% | 3.40 | 0-2 | -1.00 |
| 08-30 17:30 | DEP vs VAL | ✗ AWAY | 37.6% | 31.1% | 3.20 | 3-1 | -1.00 |
| 08-30 15:00 | RMA vs MLG | ✗ DRAW | 15.0% | 10.0% | 11.00 | 4-0 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 19:30 | SEV vs ATM | ✗ HOME | 32.6% | 26.8% | 3.80 | 1-3 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 17:00 | RSO vs ESP | ✗ AWAY | 30.9% | 23.8% | 4.32 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 17:00 | RSO vs ESP | ✗ DRAW | 23.5% | 19.7% | 5.20 | 2-1 | -1.00 |
| 08-29 15:00 | LEV vs BET | ✓ HOME | 31.7% | 28.5% | 3.55 | 5-2 | +2.55 |
| 08-28 19:30 | ALA vs VIL | ✓ HOME | 31.8% | 29.9% | 3.35 | 1-0 | +2.35 |
How to read this
A sustained positive ROI over a large sample would mean the model sees something the market misprices — that pattern (not individual picks) is the asset. A negative ROI means the market is better informed than the model, and each divergence is a measure of what the model is missing (team news, lineups, money flow). Either result is valuable; only the sample size makes it trustworthy.
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# Edge Tracker — La Liga (2026-10-27 04:58 UTC) ## Summary - Open: **7** - Settled: **63** (wins 21/63) - Staked: **63.0** u · P&L **-1.10** u · ROI **-1.7%** - O/U 2.5 settled: **25** · P&L **-5.45** · ROI **-21.8%** - Rule: EV≥5% · 1X2 p≥28% · O/U p≥20% · max 1 position/match · flat 1u paper ## Upcoming O/U 2.5 board | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | Qualifies | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | none | ## Open positions | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2026-09-13T00:00 | athletic vs elche | AWAY | 32.0% | 17.8% | 5.77 | +84.6% | | 2026-09-13T00:00 | osasuna vs espanyol | AWAY | 29.7% | 23.3% | 4.43 | +31.7% | | 2026-09-13T00:00 | real-madrid vs rayo | UNDER 2.5 | 43.0% | 33.7% | 2.82 | +21.3% | | 2026-09-13T00:00 | sevilla vs valencia | OVER 2.5 | 54.4% | 39.6% | 2.46 | +33.7% | | 2026-09-13T00:00 | villarreal vs betis | OVER 2.5 | 62.5% | 57.1% | 1.71 | +6.8% | | 2026-09-16T19:30 | levante vs athletic | HOME | 41.7% | 30.1% | 3.27 | +36.3% | | 2026-10-10T12:00 | rayo vs athletic | HOME | 43.2% | 31.5% | 3.23 | +39.4% | ## Settled positions | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | Score | Won | P&L | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---:| | 2026-10-26T20:00 | sevilla vs osasuna | AWAY | 28.4% | 23.9% | 4.11 | 2-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-25T17:30 | real-sociedad vs levante | AWAY | 28.3% | 21.3% | 4.72 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-25T15:15 | celta vs betis | AWAY | 35.1% | 31.8% | 3.10 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-25T13:00 | athletic vs getafe | AWAY | 28.5% | 18.2% | 5.50 | 4-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-24T16:30 | valencia vs villarreal | HOME | 29.0% | 28.0% | 3.65 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-24T12:00 | rayo vs elche | AWAY | 29.9% | 21.4% | 4.78 | 0-3 | Y | +3.78 | | 2026-10-21T18:00 | levante vs athletic | HOME | 40.8% | 28.7% | 3.40 | 3-1 | Y | +2.40 | | 2026-10-19T19:00 | getafe vs rayo | HOME | 39.2% | 36.2% | 2.76 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-18T16:30 | malaga vs real-sociedad | HOME | 32.3% | 29.4% | 3.30 | 2-5 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-18T14:15 | celta vs alaves | HOME | 46.7% | 44.7% | 2.25 | 2-1 | Y | +1.25 | | 2026-10-17T19:00 | valencia vs athletic | HOME | 39.0% | 26.7% | 3.62 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-17T16:30 | betis vs barcelona | UNDER 2.5 | 29.7% | 25.2% | 3.70 | 2-5 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-17T12:00 | espanyol vs atletico | HOME | 29.9% | 19.3% | 5.50 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-16T19:00 | deportivo vs levante | AWAY | 33.5% | 27.1% | 3.60 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-12T19:00 | levante vs sevilla | OVER 2.5 | 56.3% | 46.1% | 2.05 | 3-3 | Y | +1.05 | | 2026-10-11T16:30 | betis vs osasuna | UNDER 2.5 | 48.4% | 41.9% | 2.25 | 5-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-11T14:15 | real-sociedad vs deportivo | OVER 2.5 | 61.2% | 51.8% | 1.85 | 3-2 | Y | +0.85 | | 2026-10-11T12:00 | elche vs celta | OVER 2.5 | 54.9% | 46.1% | 2.05 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-10T19:00 | real-madrid vs villarreal | UNDER 2.5 | 30.6% | 25.2% | 3.70 | 1-0 | Y | +2.70 | | 2026-10-10T16:30 | barcelona vs getafe | UNDER 2.5 | 33.0% | 21.4% | 4.40 | 3-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-10T14:15 | alaves vs atletico | HOME | 30.2% | 26.5% | 3.85 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-09T19:00 | malaga vs espanyol | AWAY | 40.8% | 33.8% | 2.92 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-20T19:00 | valencia vs real-sociedad | OVER 2.5 | 57.7% | 49.6% | 1.93 | 2-3 | Y | +0.93 | | 2026-09-20T16:30 | deportivo vs betis | AWAY | 44.4% | 37.9% | 2.66 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-20T14:15 | atletico vs real-madrid | HOME | 32.1% | 25.5% | 4.04 | 2-1 | Y | +3.04 | | 2026-09-20T12:00 | getafe vs malaga | HOME | 49.0% | 45.3% | 2.23 | 1-0 | Y | +1.23 | | 2026-09-19T14:15 | athletic vs alaves | AWAY | 33.1% | 20.5% | 4.80 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-19T12:00 | osasuna vs rayo | AWAY | 31.5% | 27.8% | 3.70 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-18T19:00 | espanyol vs elche | AWAY | 28.9% | 25.3% | 4.22 | 1-3 | Y | +3.22 | | 2026-09-17T19:30 | malaga vs villarreal | AWAY | 53.6% | 47.6% | 2.06 | 1-3 | Y | +1.06 | | 2026-09-17T17:00 | betis vs getafe | UNDER 2.5 | 59.4% | 52.3% | 1.87 | 1-0 | Y | +0.87 | | 2026-09-16T17:00 | deportivo vs sevilla | OVER 2.5 | 59.0% | 39.8% | 2.38 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-15T19:30 | elche vs real-madrid | UNDER 2.5 | 35.2% | 31.2% | 3.00 | 2-3 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-15T18:00 | alaves vs valencia | OVER 2.5 | 49.5% | 41.9% | 2.25 | 0-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-15T17:00 | rayo vs espanyol | AWAY | 30.5% | 26.4% | 3.70 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-14T19:00 | villarreal vs betis | AWAY | 28.5% | 25.3% | 4.00 | 1-2 | Y | +3.00 | | 2026-09-13T14:15 | levante vs barcelona | UNDER 2.5 | 27.8% | 23.8% | 3.90 | 2-4 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-13T00:00 | celta vs malaga | OVER 2.5 | 56.3% | 45.3% | 2.15 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-13T00:00 | getafe vs deportivo | OVER 2.5 | 39.9% | 31.0% | 3.05 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-13T00:00 | real-sociedad vs atletico | OVER 2.5 | 62.9% | 54.8% | 1.77 | 0-3 | Y | +0.77 | | 2026-09-12T19:00 | real-madrid vs rayo | UNDER 2.5 | 41.8% | 28.3% | 3.30 | 4-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-12T16:30 | athletic vs elche | AWAY | 30.4% | 17.2% | 5.70 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-12T14:15 | osasuna vs espanyol | AWAY | 29.3% | 23.7% | 4.35 | 0-2 | Y | +3.35 | | 2026-09-11T19:00 | sevilla vs valencia | OVER 2.5 | 55.5% | 39.4% | 2.38 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-07T19:30 | elche vs real-sociedad | OVER 2.5 | 65.9% | 50.7% | 1.97 | 2-3 | Y | +0.97 | | 2026-09-07T17:00 | getafe vs celta | AWAY | 35.2% | 31.9% | 3.20 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-06T19:00 | espanyol vs sevilla | OVER 2.5 | 55.9% | 38.7% | 2.54 | 1-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-06T16:30 | alaves vs osasuna | OVER 2.5 | 46.3% | 39.6% | 2.52 | 5-2 | Y | +1.52 | | 2026-09-06T16:30 | malaga vs levante | AWAY | 38.9% | 27.3% | 3.81 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-05T19:00 | villarreal vs deportivo | OVER 2.5 | 65.2% | 52.6% | 1.89 | 2-3 | Y | +0.89 | | 2026-09-05T14:15 | athletic vs atletico | AWAY | 48.4% | 38.8% | 2.52 | 3-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-04T19:00 | betis vs real-madrid | HOME | 31.8% | 24.2% | 4.12 | 1-0 | Y | +3.12 | | 2026-09-03T19:00 | real-sociedad vs celta | OVER 2.5 | 60.2% | 49.9% | 2.04 | 0-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-31T19:30 | barcelona vs rayo | UNDER 2.5 | 38.0% | 28.1% | 3.50 | 5-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-31T17:30 | osasuna vs getafe | AWAY | 28.6% | 25.2% | 4.00 | 1-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-30T19:30 | celta vs athletic | OVER 2.5 | 53.6% | 31.9% | 3.40 | 0-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-30T17:30 | deportivo vs valencia | AWAY | 37.6% | 31.1% | 3.20 | 3-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-30T15:00 | real-madrid vs malaga | DRAW | 15.0% | 10.0% | 11.00 | 4-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T19:30 | sevilla vs atletico | HOME | 32.6% | 26.8% | 3.80 | 1-3 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T17:00 | real-sociedad vs espanyol | AWAY | 30.9% | 23.8% | 4.32 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T17:00 | real-sociedad vs espanyol | DRAW | 23.5% | 19.7% | 5.20 | 2-1 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-08-29T15:00 | levante vs betis | HOME | 31.7% | 28.5% | 3.55 | 5-2 | Y | +2.55 | | 2026-08-28T19:30 | alaves vs villarreal | HOME | 31.8% | 29.9% | 3.35 | 1-0 | Y | +2.35 | _Paper positions only — not betting advice. ROI is noise below ~200 settled._