Gameweek 8
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 19:00 | MLG vs ESP | 31.5% | 24.8% | 43.7% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-10 12:00 | RAY vs ATH | 43.9% | 24.7% | 31.4% | — | HOME · XI ×1.10/1.10 | analysis → |
| 10-10 14:15 | ALA vs ATM | 34.8% | 25.3% | 40.0% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-10 16:30 | FCB vs GET | 77.5% | 14.1% | 8.4% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 19:00 | RMA vs VIL | 60.0% | 18.8% | 21.2% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 12:00 | ELC vs CEL | 36.2% | 25.7% | 38.0% | 0-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-11 14:15 | RSO vs DEP | 51.0% | 22.5% | 26.5% | 3-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 16:30 | BET vs OSA | 57.4% | 21.9% | 20.7% | 5-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 19:00 | RAC vs VAL | 37.2% | 24.0% | 38.9% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-12 19:00 | LEV vs SEV | 46.6% | 23.9% | 29.4% | 3-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.