Gameweek 9
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 19:00 | DEP vs LEV | 42.1% | 23.9% | 33.9% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-17 12:00 | ESP vs ATM | 29.9% | 25.1% | 45.0% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 14:15 | VIL vs ELC | 61.2% | 19.3% | 19.5% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-17 16:30 | BET vs FCB | 25.8% | 20.1% | 54.2% | 2-5 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 19:00 | VAL vs ATH | 39.8% | 24.9% | 35.3% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 12:00 | OSA vs RAC | 54.9% | 21.3% | 23.8% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 14:15 | CEL vs ALA | 41.1% | 26.8% | 32.1% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 16:30 | MLG vs RSO | 32.2% | 22.4% | 45.4% | 2-5 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-18 19:00 | RMA vs SEV | 73.0% | 15.4% | 11.6% | 4-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-19 19:00 | GET vs RAY | 33.8% | 29.5% | 36.7% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.