Gameweek 10
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 19:00 | ALA vs MLG | 61.2% | 21.1% | 17.6% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 12:00 | RAY vs ELC | 50.9% | 23.7% | 25.3% | 0-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 14:15 | RAC vs ESP | 39.2% | 23.8% | 37.0% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 16:30 | VAL vs VIL | 33.6% | 24.6% | 41.8% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-24 19:00 | ATM vs DEP | 65.2% | 19.2% | 15.7% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 13:00 | ATH vs GET | 45.3% | 29.0% | 25.7% | 4-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 15:15 | CEL vs BET | 33.8% | 25.3% | 40.9% | 0-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-25 17:30 | RSO vs LEV | 51.9% | 20.1% | 28.0% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 20:00 | FCB vs RMA | 60.6% | 17.7% | 21.7% | 1-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-26 20:00 | SEV vs OSA | 40.9% | 24.6% | 34.6% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.