SEV vs OSA
Sevilla (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-26 · FT 2-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.91 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SEV win 40.9% fair 2.45
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
OSA win 34.6% fair 2.89
Expected Goals
SEV
1.51
—
1.40
OSA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): SEV ×0.907 (matched 9), OSA ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 OSA | 11.5% | |
| SEV 2-1 OSA | 8.7% | |
| SEV 1-0 OSA | 8.2% | |
| SEV 1-2 OSA | 8.0% | |
| SEV 0-1 OSA | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).