SEV vs OSA
Sevilla (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
SEV win 42.7% fair 2.34
Draw 25.2% fair 3.96
OSA win 32.1% fair 3.11
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.1% / 25.4% / 32.5%.
Expected Goals
SEV
1.48
—
1.27
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 OSA | 12.0% | |
| SEV 1-0 OSA | 9.5% | |
| SEV 2-1 OSA | 8.9% | |
| SEV 0-1 OSA | 8.1% | |
| SEV 1-2 OSA | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).