RAY vs ELC
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Elche · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RAY win 47.7% fair 2.10
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
ELC win 27.5% fair 3.64
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.9% / 25.0% / 27.1%.
Expected Goals
RAY
1.59
—
1.13
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 ELC | 11.9% | |
| RAY 1-0 ELC | 10.5% | |
| RAY 2-1 ELC | 9.4% | |
| RAY 2-0 ELC | 8.3% | |
| RAY 0-1 ELC | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).