RAY vs ELC
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Elche · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 0-3 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RAY win 50.9% fair 1.96
Draw 23.7% fair 4.21
ELC win 25.3% fair 3.95
Expected Goals
RAY
1.73
—
1.13
ELC
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): RAY ×1.100 (matched 8), ELC ×0.900 (matched 8). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 ELC | 11.2% | |
| RAY 1-0 ELC | 9.9% | |
| RAY 2-1 ELC | 9.7% | |
| RAY 2-0 ELC | 8.6% | |
| RAY 0-1 ELC | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).