ATH vs GET
Athletic Club (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 4-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.93
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ATH win 45.3% fair 2.21
Draw 29.0% fair 3.45
GET win 25.7% fair 3.90
Expected Goals
ATH
1.22
—
0.83
GET
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ATH ×1.100 (matched 11), GET ×0.927 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.7% | fair 2.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 66.3% | fair 1.51 |
| Both teams to score | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-0 GET | 15.7% | |
| ATH 1-1 GET | 13.0% | |
| ATH 0-0 GET | 12.9% | |
| ATH 0-1 GET | 10.7% | |
| ATH 2-0 GET | 9.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).