ATH vs GET
Athletic Club (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
ATH win 39.0% fair 2.56
Draw 28.2% fair 3.55
GET win 32.8% fair 3.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.0% / 28.8% / 33.2%.
Expected Goals
ATH
1.17
—
1.07
GET
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 GET | 13.3% | |
| ATH 1-0 GET | 12.4% | |
| ATH 0-1 GET | 11.4% | |
| ATH 0-0 GET | 10.7% | |
| ATH 2-1 GET | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).