VAL vs VIL
Valencia (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
VAL win 31.7% fair 3.15
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
VIL win 44.3% fair 2.26
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.7% / 24.0% / 46.3%.
Expected Goals
VAL
1.29
—
1.67
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 VIL | 11.2% | |
| VAL 1-2 VIL | 9.3% | |
| VAL 0-1 VIL | 8.6% | |
| VAL 2-1 VIL | 7.2% | |
| VAL 0-2 VIL | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).