VAL vs VIL
Valencia (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 1-2 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.94
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VAL win 33.6% fair 2.97
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
VIL win 41.8% fair 2.39
Expected Goals
VAL
1.32
—
1.56
VIL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): VAL ×1.100 (matched 11), VIL ×0.940 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 VIL | 11.6% | |
| VAL 1-2 VIL | 9.0% | |
| VAL 0-1 VIL | 8.8% | |
| VAL 2-1 VIL | 7.6% | |
| VAL 1-0 VIL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).