ATM vs DEP
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 77% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 1-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ATM win 65.2% fair 1.53
Draw 19.2% fair 5.22
DEP win 15.7% fair 6.39
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.2% / 18.4% / 13.4%.
Expected Goals
ATM
2.26
—
0.89
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.2% | fair 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 2-0 DEP | 11.0% | |
| ATM 2-1 DEP | 9.7% | |
| ATM 1-0 DEP | 9.7% | |
| ATM 1-1 DEP | 8.6% | |
| ATM 3-0 DEP | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).