ATM vs DEP
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 70%
Match Outcome
ATM win 62.7% fair 1.59
Draw 20.1% fair 4.98
DEP win 17.2% fair 5.81
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.3% / 19.2% / 14.5%.
Expected Goals
ATM
2.17
—
0.91
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.6% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 2-0 DEP | 10.9% | |
| ATM 1-0 DEP | 10.0% | |
| ATM 2-1 DEP | 9.8% | |
| ATM 1-1 DEP | 9.1% | |
| ATM 3-0 DEP | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).