Gameweek 11
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 20:00 | VIL vs ESP | 57.6% | 22.0% | 20.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 13:00 | LEV vs ATM | 26.7% | 22.9% | 50.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-31 15:15 | RAY vs CEL | 35.3% | 27.0% | 37.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-31 17:30 | BET vs MLG | 65.1% | 19.2% | 15.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 20:00 | FCB vs ALA | 79.3% | 12.0% | 8.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 13:00 | GET vs SEV | 37.0% | 28.0% | 35.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 15:15 | RAC vs RMA | 15.9% | 16.2% | 67.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-01 17:30 | ELC vs VAL | 49.0% | 24.3% | 26.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 20:00 | ATH vs RSO | 42.8% | 23.5% | 33.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-02 20:00 | DEP vs OSA | 42.2% | 25.7% | 32.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.