Gameweek 11
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 00:00 | ATH vs RSO | 39.7% | 23.7% | 36.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 00:00 | BET vs MLG | 61.7% | 20.5% | 17.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 00:00 | DEP vs OSA | 35.3% | 25.9% | 38.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-01 00:00 | ELC vs VAL | 40.8% | 24.8% | 34.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 00:00 | FCB vs ALA | 71.6% | 16.2% | 12.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 00:00 | GET vs SEV | 40.8% | 27.3% | 31.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 00:00 | LEV vs ATM | 29.1% | 23.9% | 47.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-01 00:00 | RAC vs RMA | 20.9% | 19.6% | 59.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-01 00:00 | RAY vs CEL | 39.0% | 26.9% | 34.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 00:00 | VIL vs ESP | 57.2% | 21.4% | 21.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.