RAC vs RMA
Racing Santander (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 72%
Match Outcome
RAC win 20.9% fair 4.78
Draw 19.6% fair 5.11
RMA win 59.5% fair 1.68
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 16.1% / 18.7% / 65.2%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.06
—
2.30
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.8% | fair 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-2 RMA | 9.7% | |
| RAC 0-2 RMA | 9.2% | |
| RAC 1-1 RMA | 8.5% | |
| RAC 0-1 RMA | 8.0% | |
| RAC 1-3 RMA | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).