RAC vs RMA
Racing Santander (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 15.9% fair 6.29
Draw 16.2% fair 6.19
RMA win 67.9% fair 1.47
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 11.5% / 15.0% / 73.5%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.03
—
2.75
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.8% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.2% | fair 3.68 |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-2 RMA | 8.9% | |
| RAC 0-2 RMA | 8.6% | |
| RAC 1-3 RMA | 8.2% | |
| RAC 0-3 RMA | 7.9% | |
| RAC 1-1 RMA | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).