DEP vs OSA
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
DEP win 35.3% fair 2.83
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
OSA win 38.8% fair 2.58
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.8% / 26.4% / 40.9%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.21
—
1.38
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.2% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 OSA | 12.5% | |
| DEP 0-1 OSA | 10.4% | |
| DEP 1-0 OSA | 9.1% | |
| DEP 1-2 OSA | 8.6% | |
| DEP 2-1 OSA | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).