LEV vs ATM
Levante (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
LEV win 29.1% fair 3.44
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
ATM win 47.0% fair 2.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.8% / 23.9% / 49.4%.
Expected Goals
LEV
1.20
—
1.71
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 ATM | 11.2% | |
| LEV 1-2 ATM | 9.6% | |
| LEV 0-1 ATM | 9.4% | |
| LEV 0-2 ATM | 8.0% | |
| LEV 2-1 ATM | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).