Gameweek 12
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-08 00:00 | ATM vs FCB | 28.5% | 22.7% | 48.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 00:00 | CEL vs LEV | 52.0% | 23.5% | 24.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 00:00 | ELC vs BET | 31.8% | 23.8% | 44.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 00:00 | ESP vs DEP | 50.8% | 24.0% | 25.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 00:00 | MLG vs RAC | 40.9% | 24.6% | 34.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 00:00 | OSA vs ATH | 47.7% | 25.2% | 27.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 00:00 | RSO vs RAY | 43.6% | 24.8% | 31.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 00:00 | SEV vs ALA | 42.9% | 24.7% | 32.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 00:00 | VAL vs RMA | 23.9% | 22.4% | 53.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 00:00 | VIL vs GET | 55.1% | 23.9% | 20.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.