Gameweek 12
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-06 20:00 | SEV vs ALA | 44.5% | 24.7% | 30.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 13:00 | MLG vs RAC | 41.7% | 23.9% | 34.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 15:15 | ESP vs DEP | 45.6% | 25.5% | 28.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 17:30 | OSA vs ATH | 37.9% | 26.2% | 35.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 20:00 | VAL vs RMA | 18.4% | 20.2% | 61.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 13:00 | ELC vs BET | 35.4% | 24.2% | 40.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 15:15 | RSO vs RAY | 50.3% | 22.3% | 27.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 17:30 | CEL vs LEV | 50.7% | 24.2% | 25.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 17:30 | VIL vs GET | 56.5% | 24.2% | 19.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 20:00 | ATM vs FCB | 28.0% | 21.2% | 50.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.