ELC vs BET
Elche (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
ELC win 31.8% fair 3.14
Draw 23.8% fair 4.21
BET win 44.4% fair 2.25
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.8% / 23.7% / 46.4%.
Expected Goals
ELC
1.32
—
1.70
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.9% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 BET | 11.0% | |
| ELC 1-2 BET | 9.3% | |
| ELC 0-1 BET | 8.3% | |
| ELC 2-1 BET | 7.2% | |
| ELC 0-2 BET | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).