OSA vs ATH
Osasuna (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 37.9% fair 2.64
Draw 26.2% fair 3.81
ATH win 35.9% fair 2.79
Expected Goals
OSA
1.29
—
1.29
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 ATH | 12.6% | |
| OSA 1-0 ATH | 9.8% | |
| OSA 0-1 ATH | 9.7% | |
| OSA 2-1 ATH | 8.2% | |
| OSA 1-2 ATH | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).