OSA vs ATH
Osasuna (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
OSA win 47.7% fair 2.10
Draw 25.2% fair 3.96
ATH win 27.1% fair 3.69
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.9% / 25.4% / 26.6%.
Expected Goals
OSA
1.54
—
1.08
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 ATH | 12.1% | |
| OSA 1-0 ATH | 11.2% | |
| OSA 2-1 ATH | 9.3% | |
| OSA 2-0 ATH | 8.6% | |
| OSA 0-1 ATH | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).