ESP vs DEP
Espanyol (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
ESP win 50.8% fair 1.97
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
DEP win 25.2% fair 3.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.0% / 24.0% / 24.0%.
Expected Goals
ESP
1.71
—
1.08
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 DEP | 11.4% | |
| ESP 1-0 DEP | 10.5% | |
| ESP 2-1 DEP | 9.7% | |
| ESP 2-0 DEP | 9.0% | |
| ESP 0-1 DEP | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).