ESP vs DEP
Espanyol (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 45.6% fair 2.19
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
DEP win 28.9% fair 3.47
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.5% / 25.8% / 28.7%.
Expected Goals
ESP
1.49
—
1.13
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 DEP | 12.3% | |
| ESP 1-0 DEP | 10.9% | |
| ESP 2-1 DEP | 9.1% | |
| ESP 0-1 DEP | 8.2% | |
| ESP 2-0 DEP | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).