VIL vs GET
Villarreal (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 56.5% fair 1.77
Draw 24.2% fair 4.12
GET win 19.2% fair 5.20
Expected Goals
VIL
1.66
—
0.81
GET
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | fair 2.22 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 1-0 GET | 14.0% | |
| VIL 2-0 GET | 11.7% | |
| VIL 1-1 GET | 11.4% | |
| VIL 2-1 GET | 9.4% | |
| VIL 0-0 GET | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).