VAL vs RMA
Valencia (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 81%
Match Outcome
VAL win 23.9% fair 4.18
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
RMA win 53.7% fair 1.86
Expected Goals
VAL
1.07
—
1.90
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.0% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 RMA | 10.4% | |
| VAL 1-2 RMA | 9.9% | |
| VAL 0-1 RMA | 9.7% | |
| VAL 0-2 RMA | 9.2% | |
| VAL 1-3 RMA | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).