VAL vs RMA
Valencia (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VAL win 18.4% fair 5.43
Draw 20.2% fair 4.95
RMA win 61.4% fair 1.63
Expected Goals
VAL
0.94
—
2.12
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 0-2 RMA | 10.5% | |
| VAL 1-2 RMA | 9.9% | |
| VAL 0-1 RMA | 9.9% | |
| VAL 1-1 RMA | 9.3% | |
| VAL 0-3 RMA | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).