MLG vs RAC
Málaga (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 68% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 41.7% fair 2.40
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
RAC win 34.4% fair 2.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.7% / 23.9% / 35.4%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.60
—
1.48
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 RAC | 10.9% | |
| MLG 2-1 RAC | 8.7% | |
| MLG 1-2 RAC | 8.0% | |
| MLG 1-0 RAC | 7.3% | |
| MLG 0-1 RAC | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).