MLG vs RAC
Málaga (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 58%
Match Outcome
MLG win 40.9% fair 2.45
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
RAC win 34.5% fair 2.89
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.1% / 24.8% / 36.1%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.48
—
1.41
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 RAC | 11.6% | |
| MLG 2-1 RAC | 8.6% | |
| MLG 1-0 RAC | 8.2% | |
| MLG 1-2 RAC | 8.2% | |
| MLG 0-1 RAC | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).