RSO vs RAY
Real Sociedad (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RSO win 50.3% fair 1.99
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
RAY win 27.4% fair 3.65
Expected Goals
RSO
1.93
—
1.36
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 RAY | 9.8% | |
| RSO 2-1 RAY | 9.4% | |
| RSO 1-0 RAY | 7.2% | |
| RSO 2-0 RAY | 6.9% | |
| RSO 1-2 RAY | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).