RSO vs RAY
Real Sociedad (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RSO win 43.6% fair 2.29
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
RAY win 31.6% fair 3.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.2% / 24.9% / 31.8%.
Expected Goals
RSO
1.54
—
1.29
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 RAY | 11.7% | |
| RSO 1-0 RAY | 9.1% | |
| RSO 2-1 RAY | 9.0% | |
| RSO 0-1 RAY | 7.6% | |
| RSO 1-2 RAY | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).