ATM vs FCB
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 87% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 28.0% fair 3.57
Draw 21.2% fair 4.71
FCB win 50.7% fair 1.97
Expected Goals
ATM
1.46
—
2.10
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.0% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.0% | fair 3.22 |
| Both teams to score | 67.3% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-2 FCB | 9.2% | |
| ATM 1-1 FCB | 8.7% | |
| ATM 2-2 FCB | 6.7% | |
| ATM 1-3 FCB | 6.4% | |
| ATM 2-1 FCB | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).