ATM vs FCB
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 85%
Match Outcome
ATM win 28.5% fair 3.51
Draw 22.7% fair 4.41
FCB win 48.8% fair 2.05
Expected Goals
ATM
1.31
—
1.87
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.2% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-1 FCB | 10.2% | |
| ATM 1-2 FCB | 9.5% | |
| ATM 0-1 FCB | 7.7% | |
| ATM 0-2 FCB | 7.2% | |
| ATM 2-1 FCB | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).