SEV vs ALA
Sevilla (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
SEV win 42.9% fair 2.33
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
ALA win 32.4% fair 3.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.4% / 24.8% / 32.8%.
Expected Goals
SEV
1.54
—
1.32
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.4% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 ALA | 11.6% | |
| SEV 2-1 ALA | 9.0% | |
| SEV 1-0 ALA | 8.8% | |
| SEV 1-2 ALA | 7.7% | |
| SEV 0-1 ALA | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).