Gameweek 13
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-20 20:00 | ATH vs ESP | 45.9% | 25.9% | 28.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 13:00 | ALA vs DEP | 47.7% | 25.1% | 27.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:15 | RAY vs VAL | 45.2% | 25.7% | 29.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 17:30 | SEV vs BET | 35.0% | 24.0% | 40.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 20:00 | RMA vs CEL | 62.4% | 20.8% | 16.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 13:00 | FCB vs VIL | 71.0% | 15.2% | 13.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 15:15 | RAC vs RSO | 32.9% | 21.2% | 45.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-22 17:30 | OSA vs MLG | 51.1% | 24.3% | 24.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 20:00 | GET vs ATM | 24.3% | 27.0% | 48.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-23 20:00 | LEV vs ELC | 41.5% | 23.7% | 34.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.