RMA vs CEL
Real Madrid (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RMA win 62.4% fair 1.60
Draw 20.8% fair 4.80
CEL win 16.7% fair 5.98
Expected Goals
RMA
2.02
—
0.88
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 CEL | 11.2% | |
| RMA 1-0 CEL | 11.1% | |
| RMA 2-1 CEL | 9.9% | |
| RMA 1-1 CEL | 9.8% | |
| RMA 3-0 CEL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).