EDGERATING
Methodology

RMA vs CEL

Real Madrid (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 82%

Match Outcome

RMA win 61.5% fair 1.63
Draw 20.3% fair 4.93
CEL win 18.2% fair 5.50

Expected Goals

RMA 2.15 1.01 CEL
Over 2.5 goals61.2%fair 1.63
Under 2.5 goals38.8%fair 2.58
Both teams to score56.2%fair 1.78

Most Likely Scores

RMA 2-1 CEL9.9%
RMA 2-0 CEL9.8%
RMA 1-1 CEL9.2%
RMA 1-0 CEL9.1%
RMA 3-1 CEL7.1%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 4.2 4.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
1 9.1 9.2 4.7 1.6 0.4 0.1
2 9.8 9.9 5.0 1.7 0.4 0.1
3 7.0 7.1 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 3.8 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
5+ 2.4 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0

Rows: RMA goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

Try Another Matchup

vs