ATH vs ESP
Athletic Club (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ATH win 39.8% fair 2.51
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
ESP win 34.8% fair 2.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.8% / 25.7% / 35.5%.
Expected Goals
ATH
1.40
—
1.33
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 ESP | 12.2% | |
| ATH 1-0 ESP | 9.2% | |
| ATH 0-1 ESP | 8.7% | |
| ATH 2-1 ESP | 8.5% | |
| ATH 1-2 ESP | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).