ATH vs ESP
Athletic Club (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 45.9% fair 2.18
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
ESP win 28.3% fair 3.54
Expected Goals
ATH
1.47
—
1.09
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 ESP | 12.4% | |
| ATH 1-0 ESP | 11.4% | |
| ATH 2-1 ESP | 9.1% | |
| ATH 0-1 ESP | 8.5% | |
| ATH 2-0 ESP | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).