RAC vs RSO
Racing Santander (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
RAC win 37.8% fair 2.65
Draw 23.2% fair 4.32
RSO win 39.0% fair 2.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.9% / 23.0% / 41.1%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.59
—
1.71
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.9% | fair 2.78 |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 RSO | 10.0% | |
| RAC 1-2 RSO | 8.6% | |
| RAC 2-1 RSO | 8.0% | |
| RAC 2-2 RSO | 6.8% | |
| RAC 0-1 RSO | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).