RAC vs RSO
Racing Santander (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 32.9% fair 3.04
Draw 21.2% fair 4.71
RSO win 45.9% fair 2.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.7% / 20.8% / 48.6%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.67
—
2.13
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.2% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.8% | fair 3.73 |
| Both teams to score | 71.6% | fair 1.40 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-2 RSO | 8.5% | |
| RAC 1-1 RSO | 7.9% | |
| RAC 2-2 RSO | 7.1% | |
| RAC 2-1 RSO | 6.6% | |
| RAC 1-3 RSO | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).