LEV vs ELC
Levante (home) vs Elche · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
LEV win 44.4% fair 2.25
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
ELC win 31.8% fair 3.14
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.1% / 23.8% / 32.1%.
Expected Goals
LEV
1.67
—
1.39
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.1% | fair 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 ELC | 10.9% | |
| LEV 2-1 ELC | 9.1% | |
| LEV 1-0 ELC | 7.8% | |
| LEV 1-2 ELC | 7.6% | |
| LEV 0-1 ELC | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).