OSA vs MLG
Osasuna (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 51.1% fair 1.96
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
MLG win 24.6% fair 4.06
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.0% / 24.3% / 23.7%.
Expected Goals
OSA
1.67
—
1.04
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 MLG | 11.6% | |
| OSA 1-0 MLG | 11.1% | |
| OSA 2-1 MLG | 9.6% | |
| OSA 2-0 MLG | 9.2% | |
| OSA 0-1 MLG | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).