OSA vs MLG
Osasuna (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
OSA win 53.4% fair 1.87
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
MLG win 22.8% fair 4.39
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 55.2% / 23.8% / 21.0%.
Expected Goals
OSA
1.72
—
0.96
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-0 MLG | 11.8% | |
| OSA 1-1 MLG | 11.3% | |
| OSA 2-0 MLG | 10.1% | |
| OSA 2-1 MLG | 9.7% | |
| OSA 0-0 MLG | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).