RAY vs VAL
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RAY win 43.4% fair 2.30
Draw 26.9% fair 3.71
VAL win 29.6% fair 3.38
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.1% / 27.4% / 29.6%.
Expected Goals
RAY
1.34
—
1.06
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 VAL | 12.9% | |
| RAY 1-0 VAL | 12.2% | |
| RAY 0-1 VAL | 9.6% | |
| RAY 0-0 VAL | 9.1% | |
| RAY 2-1 VAL | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).