RAY vs VAL
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAY win 45.2% fair 2.21
Draw 25.7% fair 3.90
VAL win 29.1% fair 3.44
Expected Goals
RAY
1.48
—
1.13
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 VAL | 12.3% | |
| RAY 1-0 VAL | 10.9% | |
| RAY 2-1 VAL | 9.1% | |
| RAY 0-1 VAL | 8.3% | |
| RAY 2-0 VAL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).