GET vs ATM
Getafe (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GET win 24.3% fair 4.11
Draw 27.0% fair 3.70
ATM win 48.6% fair 2.06
Expected Goals
GET
0.83
—
1.40
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.5% | fair 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
| Both teams to score | 42.5% | fair 2.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 0-1 ATM | 15.1% | |
| GET 1-1 ATM | 12.5% | |
| GET 0-0 ATM | 10.7% | |
| GET 0-2 ATM | 10.6% | |
| GET 1-0 ATM | 8.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 15.1 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).