Gameweek 14
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-29 00:00 | BET vs RAY | 55.5% | 22.6% | 21.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 00:00 | CEL vs VIL | 37.7% | 25.8% | 36.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 00:00 | DEP vs FCB | 13.9% | 14.5% | 71.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-29 00:00 | ELC vs ATM | 29.1% | 23.9% | 46.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-29 00:00 | ESP vs GET | 42.4% | 29.1% | 28.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 00:00 | LEV vs RAC | 53.6% | 21.3% | 25.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 00:00 | MLG vs ATH | 31.2% | 25.5% | 43.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-29 00:00 | RMA vs ALA | 69.2% | 17.6% | 13.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 00:00 | RSO vs SEV | 48.2% | 21.8% | 30.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 00:00 | VAL vs OSA | 42.5% | 26.0% | 31.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.