RSO vs SEV
Real Sociedad (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
RSO win 48.7% fair 2.05
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
SEV win 28.9% fair 3.46
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.2% / 22.1% / 28.7%.
Expected Goals
RSO
1.93
—
1.43
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | fair 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 SEV | 9.6% | |
| RSO 2-1 SEV | 9.2% | |
| RSO 1-2 SEV | 6.9% | |
| RSO 1-0 SEV | 6.7% | |
| RSO 2-2 SEV | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).