RSO vs SEV
Real Sociedad (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RSO win 48.2% fair 2.07
Draw 21.8% fair 4.58
SEV win 30.0% fair 3.34
Expected Goals
RSO
2.00
—
1.54
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.7% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.3% | fair 3.19 |
| Both teams to score | 68.0% | fair 1.47 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 SEV | 8.9% | |
| RSO 2-1 SEV | 8.9% | |
| RSO 1-2 SEV | 6.9% | |
| RSO 2-2 SEV | 6.9% | |
| RSO 3-1 SEV | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).