Gameweek 15
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-06 00:00 | ALA vs ESP | 44.6% | 26.0% | 29.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 00:00 | ATH vs RMA | 22.3% | 22.1% | 55.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-06 00:00 | ATM vs BET | 50.6% | 23.7% | 25.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 00:00 | FCB vs CEL | 73.2% | 15.2% | 11.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 00:00 | GET vs VAL | 40.4% | 29.3% | 30.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 00:00 | OSA vs ELC | 38.5% | 25.1% | 36.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 00:00 | RAC vs DEP | 40.4% | 23.9% | 35.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 00:00 | RAY vs LEV | 43.9% | 24.3% | 31.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 00:00 | SEV vs MLG | 56.9% | 22.0% | 21.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 00:00 | VIL vs RSO | 55.3% | 20.5% | 24.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.