ALA vs ESP
Alavés (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 44.6% fair 2.24
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
ESP win 29.4% fair 3.40
Expected Goals
ALA
1.44
—
1.12
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 ESP | 12.5% | |
| ALA 1-0 ESP | 11.1% | |
| ALA 2-1 ESP | 9.0% | |
| ALA 0-1 ESP | 8.7% | |
| ALA 2-0 ESP | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).