FCB vs CEL
Barcelona (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 73.2% fair 1.37
Draw 15.2% fair 6.56
CEL win 11.6% fair 8.62
Expected Goals
FCB
2.74
—
0.92
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.8% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.2% | fair 3.42 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-0 CEL | 9.7% | |
| FCB 2-1 CEL | 8.9% | |
| FCB 3-0 CEL | 8.8% | |
| FCB 3-1 CEL | 8.1% | |
| FCB 1-0 CEL | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).