VIL vs RSO
Villarreal (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 55.3% fair 1.81
Draw 20.5% fair 4.89
RSO win 24.2% fair 4.13
Expected Goals
VIL
2.24
—
1.41
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.5% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.5% | fair 3.39 |
| Both teams to score | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-1 RSO | 9.2% | |
| VIL 1-1 RSO | 8.2% | |
| VIL 3-1 RSO | 6.9% | |
| VIL 2-0 RSO | 6.5% | |
| VIL 2-2 RSO | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).