ATM vs BET
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 50.6% fair 1.98
Draw 23.7% fair 4.23
BET win 25.7% fair 3.88
Expected Goals
ATM
1.74
—
1.16
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-1 BET | 11.1% | |
| ATM 2-1 BET | 9.7% | |
| ATM 1-0 BET | 9.6% | |
| ATM 2-0 BET | 8.3% | |
| ATM 1-2 BET | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).